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The Pace At Which The World’s Permafrost Soils Are Warming
New global study reveals rising soil temperatures in permafrost regions around the world
[16. January 2019]
Global warming is leaving more and more apparent scars in the world’s permafrost regions. As the new global comparative study conducted by the international permafrost network GTN-P shows, in all regions with permafrost soils the temperature of the frozen ground at a depth of more than 10 metres rose by an average of 0.3 degrees Celsius between 2007 and 2016 – in the Arctic and Antarctic, as well as the high mountain ranges of Europe and Central Asia. The effect was most pronounced in Siberia, where the temperature of the frozen soil rose by nearly 1 degree Celsius. The pioneering study has just been released in the online journal Nature Communications.
Roughly one sixth of the land areas on our planet are considered to be permafrost regions, which means the soils there have remained permanently frozen for at least two consecutive years. In most of these regions, however, the cold penetrated the ground millennia ago; as a result, in the most extreme cases, the permafrost continues to a depth of 1.6 kilometres. Especially in the Arctic, people rely on the permafrost soil as a stable foundation for houses, roads, pipelines and airports. Yet in the wake of global warming, the integrity of these structures is increasingly jeopardised, creating enormous costs. In addition, permafrost soils contain massive quantities of preserved plant and animal matter. If this organic material thaws along with the permafrost, microorganisms will begin breaking it down – a process that could produce enough carbon dioxide and methane emissions to potentially raise the global mean temperature by an additional 0.13 to 0.27 degrees Celsius by the year 2100.
A new comparative study released by the GTN-P (Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost) shows for the first time the extent to which permafrost soils around the world have already warmed. For the purposes of the study, the participating researchers monitored and analysed the soil temperature in boreholes in the Arctic, Antarctic and various high mountain ranges around the world for ten years. The data was gathered at depths greater than 10 metres, so as to rule out the influence of seasonal temperature variations.
The complete dataset encompasses 154 boreholes, 123 of which allow conclusions to be drawn for an entire decade, while the remainder can be used to refine calculations on annual deviation. The results show that, in the ten years from 2007 to 2016, the temperature of the permafrost soil rose at 71 of the 123 measuring sites; in five of the boreholes, the permafrost was already thawing. In contrast, the soil temperature sank at 12 boreholes, e.g. at individual sites in eastern Canada, southern Eurasia and on the Antarctic Peninsula; at 40 boreholes, the temperature remained virtually unchanged.
In individual cases, temperature spiked up to 1 degree Celsius
The researchers observed the most dramatic warming in the Arctic: “There, in regions with more than 90 percent permafrost content, the soil temperature rose by an average of 0.30 degrees Celsius within ten years,” reports first author Dr Boris Biskaborn, a member of the research group Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems at the Potsdam facilities of the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research. In northeast and northwest Siberia, the temperature increase at some boreholes was 0.90 degrees Celsius or even higher. For the sake of comparison: the air temperature in the respective regions rose by an average of 0.61 degrees Celsius in the same period.
Farther south, in Arctic regions with less than 90 percent permafrost, the frozen ground only warmed by 0.2 degrees Celsius on average. “In these regions there is more and more snowfall, which insulates the permafrost in two ways, following the igloo principle: in winter the snow protects the soil from extreme cold, which on average produces a warming effect. In spring it reflects the sunlight, and prevents the soil from being exposed to too much warmth, at least until the snow has completely melted away,” Biskaborn explains.
Significant warming can also be seen in the permafrost regions of the high mountain ranges, and in the Antarctic. The temperature of the permanently frozen soils in the Alps, in the Himalayas and in the mountain ranges of the Nordic countries rose by an average of 0.19 degrees Celsius. In the shallow boreholes in the Antarctic, the researchers measured a rise of 0.37 degrees.
“All this data tells us that the permafrost isn’t simply warming on a local and regional scale, but worldwide and at virtually the same pace as climate warming, which is producing a substantial warming of the air and increased snow thickness, especially in the Arctic. These two factors in turn produce a warming of the once permanently frozen ground,” says Prof. Guido Grosse, Head of the Permafrost Research Section at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Potsdam.
Permafrost monitoring calls for an institutional framework
These revealing insights are the reward for a decade-long international collaboration that involved experts from 26 countries. The majority of the boreholes used in the study were drilled and equipped with measuring equipment during the International Polar Year 2007/08, and offered a first “snapshot” of the permafrost temperatures. Since then, more than 50 different research groups have performed regular maintenance on the measuring stations, and recorded their readings on an annual basis. In the virtual network GTN-P, the findings were subsequently collated and standardised, ensuring their inter comparability.
According to Prof. Hanne H. Christiansen, co-author of the study and President of the International Permafrost Association (IPA), “Monitoring global permafrost temperatures and gathering the data in the freely accessible GTN-P database is tremendously important – and not just for researchers, educators and communicators, but for various other users.”
“The permafrost temperature is one of the most universally accepted climate variables. It offers a direct insight into how the frozen ground is reacting to climate change,” the researcher explains. This information is above all essential in those permafrost regions where the soil has already grown warmer or begun thawing, producing major damage when the ground buckles, destabilising roads and buildings. Accordingly, the researchers plan to continue monitoring the boreholes.
Unlike weather observations, there is still no single international institution that, following in the footsteps of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), successfully bundles national interests. Such an institution would be an essential asset in terms of coordinating these important scientific measurements, and to ensure the monitoring sites continue to be used in the future.
To date, the permafrost boreholes and the temperature sensors installed in them have been kept up and running by individual research groups in the context of various small-scale projects. The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) offers a web-based data management system (gtnpdatabase.org), which was jointly developed by the Alfred Wegener Institute and the Iceland-based Arctic Portal, and was made possible by the financial support of the European Union.
Original publication
Biskaborn, B.K., Smith, S.L., Noetzli, J., Matthes, H., Vieira, G., Streletskiy, D.A., Schoeneich, P., Romanovsky, V.E., Lewkowicz, A.G., Abramov, A., Allard, M., Boike, J., Cable, W.L., Christiansen, H.H., Delaloye, R., Diekmann, B., Drozdov, D., Etzelmüller, B., Grosse, G., Guglielmin, M., Ingeman-Nielsen, T., Isaksen, K., Ishikawa, M., Johansson, M., Johannsson, H., Joo, A., Kaverin, D., Kholodov, A., Konstantinov, P., Kröger, T., Lambiel, C., Lanckman, J.-P., Luo, D., Malkova, G., Meiklejohn, I., Moskalenko, N., Oliva, M., Phillips, M., Ramos, M., Sannel, A.B.K., Sergeev, D., Seybold, C., Skryabin, P., Vasiliev, A., Wu, Q., Yoshikawa, K., Zheleznyak, M., Lantuit, H., 2019: Permafrost is warming at a global scale. Nature Communications 10, 264. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4
Downloads
AWI permafrost scientists investigate the, jpg | 2 MB
Image from the Lena spring flood at Samoylov., jpg | 2 MB
Lena spring flood at Samoylov jpg | 2 MB
Aerial photo of the Russian tundra jpg | 3 MB
Lake and ponds at the foothills of the Brooks, jpg | 3 MB
AWI permafrost expert Dr. Guido Grosse (left), jpg | 3 MB
AWI permafrost expert Dr. Guido Grosse, jpg | 4 MB
AWI permafrost expert Dr. Guido Grosse, jpg | 2 MB
AWI permafrost scientists investigate the, jpg | 4 MB
Drainage channel of a freshly drained basin, jpg | 3 MB
Contact
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Boris K. Biskaborn
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Boris.Biskaborn@awi.de
Guido Grosse
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guido.grosse@awi.de
Hugues Lantuit
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Hugues.Lantuit@awi.de
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Folke Mehrtens
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The Alfred Wegener Institute pursues research in the polar regions and the oceans of mid and high latitudes. As one of the 18 centres of the Helmholtz Association it coordinates polar research in Germany and provides ships like the research icebreaker Polarstern and stations for the international scientific community.
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Last update: 16.01.2019
The Number One Reason Why Indoor Vertical Farming Makes Sense?
Contributed Content by: Robert Colangelo, Green Sense Farms Holding’s, Inc.
With a temperature of -23 F and a -53F windchill,
the Green Sense Farms team is still growing strong!
Netherlands: Additional Research Facilities At Delphy
The facility has now been extended with the addition of two climate cells.
For years, Delphy Improvement Centre in Bleijswijk and Certhon have shared the same ambition: to contribute to global solutions in the field of health, food safety and sustainability, through knowledge sharing and knowledge development. This is reflected in the Improvement Centre, which was opened a few years ago and has been used for various research projects since. The facility has now been extended with the addition of two climate cells.
Following the research facilities in the greenhouse, Delphy wanted to make an in-depth study of research and research methods. With the two climate cells realized by Certhon last summer, Delphy can gain more knowledge about daylight-free cultivation and physiological aspects of plants. This knowledge can also be applied in the greenhouse.
The two climate cells can be found in the reception area of the research centre. The doors of the cells are equipped with two small windows, so visitors can see which test set-up with which crops are inside. A few weeks ago, the first tomato and cucumber plants were placed and the research started. During the cultivation process there will be frequent consultation between Delphy and Certhon, to share advice and knowledge.
For more information:
Certhon
www.certhon.com
Publication date : 12/17/2018
Key Findings From Climate Adaptation Report
By Joyce Coffee
At the request of Kresge, a leading philanthropy focused on adaptation in the US, I joined with Dr. Susi Moser with Susanne Moser Research and Consulting and Aleka Seville at the time with Four Twenty Seven Inc. to conduct interviews and surveys with almost 100 leaders representing the public, private, and NGO/civic sectors and academia, covering a wide range of adaptation-related expertise and perspectives.
Read Article
The U.S. Government’s Fourth National Climate Assessment (November, 2018) Highlights The Need To Adopt Aquaponics At A Large Scale Nationwide
Aquaponics Association
By Brian Filipowich, Chairman
The report states: “over the next few decades, overall, yields from major U.S. crops are expected to decline as a consequence of increases in temperatures and possibly changes in water availability, soil erosion, and disease and pest outbreaks”; furthermore: “[c]limate change is also expected to lead to large-scale shifts in the availability and prices of many agricultural products across the world, with corresponding impacts on U.S. agricultural producers and the U.S. economy.”
So how can aquaponics help?
Aquaponics is a method of growing fish and plants in efficient, recirculating systems. Aquaponics does not require soil, and is practiced across the nation from cities to deserts. The ability to grow food anywhere allows all regions of the U.S. to create their own food supply without relying on long-distance, carbon-intensive food transport.
Aquaponics requires over 90% less water than traditional soil growth, making production far less susceptible to water shortages.
Aquaponics does not require synthetic pesticides, fertilizers, or antibiotics.
Also, aquaponic systems not only produce fruits and vegetables, but also edible fish — an extremely efficient source of healthy protein that can be grown in any environment.
Unfortunately, the U.S. economy is not set up to incentivise efficient food production methods like aquaponics, hydroponics, and vertical agriculture. A free market economy is based on producers incorporating all costs of production into the prices for goods. But certain costs of agriculture are not realized at the time of production and are passed to other parties or future generations, creating artificially low prices for inefficient goods.
Modern large-scale agriculture uses excessive amounts of water, carbon, pesticides, antibiotics and fertilizers. These elements create enormous costs passed to others such as climate change adaptation, healthcare costs, food waste, antibiotic resistance, and toxic nutrient runoff.
Conversely, aquaponic systems can grow much more efficiently, but without a means to monetize this efficiency.
The U.S. Government Climate Report highlights the need to change the current system: “[n]umerous adaptation strategies are available to cope with adverse impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production. These include altering what is produced, modifying the inputs used for production, adopting new technologies, and adjusting management strategies.”
It will take a large-scale, concerted nationwide effort to change the way we incentivize food production. Until that point, our economic system will steer consumers towards produce that adds to the problem of climate change, and is less able to adapt to climate change.
Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/23/health/climate-change-report-bn/index.html?no-st=1543264267
5 Major Crops In The Crosshairs Of Climate Change
October 25, 2018
Heather Kim/NPR
Climate change is coming like a freight train, or a rising tide. And our food, so dependent on rain and suitable temperatures, sits right in its path.
The plants that nourish us won't disappear entirely. But they may have to move to higher and cooler latitudes, or farther up a mountainside. Some places may find it harder to grow anything at all, because there's not enough water.
Here are five foods, and food-growing places, that will see the impact.
Wheat
Wheat, source of bread and a foundation of life in much of the world, will suffer from hotter temperatures — and the country where the impact may be greatest also is among least well-equipped to cope with a shortfall. India is likely to see a large drop in wheat production due to heat stress — about 8 percent if average global temperatures rise by 1 degree Celsius, according to one recent study. Temperatures are expected to rise more than that; according to a recent report from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, limiting climate change to 1.5 degrees Celsius will require heroic and dramatic action. It will take significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions within 15 years, plus efforts to recapture some of the carbon that's already been emitted, perhaps by planting new forests.
Globally, though, wheat may not be in short supply in a warmer world. Russia, which is already a major wheat exporter, may be able to expand the amount of land devoted to this crop.
Mary Mathis and Heather Kim/NPR
Peaches
Despite Georgia's claim to be the Peach State, California is the country's biggest peach producer. Farmers there grow about half of the country's fresh peaches, and almost all of the fruit that's canned and processed in other ways.
Many fruit trees, including peaches, have a peculiar requirement. If they don't experience enough chill during wintertime, they get confused and don't bloom properly. No bloom, no harvest. The peach trees currently grown in California's Central Valley require about 700 "chilling hours" during the winter. But scientists are predicting that by the end of the century, only 10 percent of the valley will reliably see that much chilling. And even if plant breeders create peach varieties that need less chilling, there's another problem: Peach trees also yield less fruit when it gets too hot in summertime.
Heather Kim/NPR
Coffee
Coffee can't take freezing temperatures, but it doesn't like extreme heat, either — at least the highly prized Arabica type doesn't. So it's mainly grown on relatively cool mountainsides in the tropics. Brazil is the biggest coffee producer in the world, by far, but as the globe warms up, most of its main coffee-growing regions probably won't be suitable for growing this crop anymore, due to heat as well as more frequent rainstorms. Coffee could move to cooler parts of the country, but researchers don't think those new growing areas will make up for what's lost.
Meanwhile, rising temperatures could threaten native coffee trees that grow wild in the forests of Ethiopia and central Africa. The wild trees represent an irreplaceable storehouse of coffee's original genetic diversity. The world's commercial coffee trees are genetically very similar to each other, and those genetically diverse wild trees could be the source of genetic traits that plant breeders may need in order to create commercial trees that can thrive in tomorrow's climate. Some of the wild trees, however, are preserved in "gene banks" in Ethiopia and Latin America.
Mary Mathis and Heather Kim/NPR
Corn
Nothing says Iowa quite like fields of corn. Climate models, though, see a different future. They're predicting that a warming climate will bring several changes, most of them bad for growing corn. Rain will come less often, and when it comes, the storms will be more intense — neither of which is helpful for a crop that demands frequent rains, but doesn't do a good job of preventing soil erosion. In addition, corn suffers when it gets too hot — especially when it's too hot at night. Add it all up, and one study estimates that corn yields in Iowa will fall substantially, anywhere from 15 percent to an astounding 50 percent. "By 2100, the Corn Belt is going to be in Canada, not in the United States," says Jason Clay, senior vice president for food and markets at the World Wildlife Fund.
So what will replace corn on Iowa's fertile land? According to one study, by the end of the century this part of the Midwest will be more suited for growing cotton, soybeans, grass and forests.
Mary Mathis and Heather Kim/NPR
Almonds
California, the biggest single source of America's fresh vegetables and nuts, and the primary source of almonds for the entire world, is a dramatic illustration of how subtle shifts in climate can have huge effects. California's farms rely heavily on snow that piles up in the Sierra Nevada mountains during the winter, and then slowly melts during the summer, delivering a vital flow of water to the state's irrigation canals. As the climate warms, though, winter precipitation will arrive more often as rain, and the snow that does fall will melt much more quickly, leaving farmers scrambling for water to keep crops alive in late summer. Also, there will be more variation from year to year; wet years will be wetter, and dry years will be even dryer.
Both trends increase the chances that from time to time, farmers will face catastrophic shortages of water. And that's especially bad for tree crops, of which almonds are the biggest, because losing an orchard is much more devastating than losing a single crop of, say, tomatoes. California's farmers may be forced to reduce the amount of land devoted to orchards, since there there's a chance that they will not survive a major drought.
Climate Change Insurance: Buy Land Somewhere Else
This fall, the United Nations stunned the world when it released a report saying that if no action was taken, the catastrophic effects of climate change could be felt as early as 2040.
In case global warming makes their homes uninhabitable, some millennials have a Plan B: investing in places like the Catskills, Oregon and Vermont.
By Alyson Krueger
November. 30, 2018
Mark Dalski is an owner of Highview Creations, a company that designs and builds green roofs in New York City, and he knows a lot about climate change. That’s why he is working on his escape.
Mr. Dalski, 33, lives in Greenwich, Conn., but he can envision a time when his home there might be besieged by extreme weather and rising sea levels. So he bought four acres of land in the Catskill Mountains, in Roxbury, N.Y., where he is building a home that is as sustainable and self-sufficient as possible.
To date, he has drilled a well, set up poles for power lines and designed a septic system that has been approved by the New York City Department of Environmental Protection. (The property is in the city’s watershed.)
He is working on designing and then securing building permits for the house. He wants it to be no more than 1,200 square feet — “it should be simple, small and sustainable,” he said — and to have an open floor plan and a lofted master bedroom. The windows will look out over land where he can grow corn, collard greens and root vegetables.
“Will I need it 10 years from now, or 30 years?” he said. “I don’t know.”
But if his part of Greenwich is ever in jeopardy, he added, “I’ll have a safe space.”
Mark Dalski lives in Connecticut, but has bought land in the Catskills, where he plans to build a sustainable house that will be self-sufficient.
Jane Beiles for The New York Times
This fall, the United Nations stunned the world when it released a report saying that if no action was taken, the catastrophic effects of climate change could be felt as early as 2040. It painted a bleak picture of a world plagued by fires, food shortages, extreme heat, droughts, floods and disease. Entire populations might have to migrate away from coastal or Southern cities. There would be a strain on resources and damage to the economy. Some believe that prices on Northern land will surge.
“It’s going to be a slow, gradual burn, if you will,” said Vivek Shandas, founder of the Sustaining Urban Places Research Lab at Portland State University. “But there will be destabilization, and it will all happen in the foreseeable future.”
Then, late last month, the federal government issued a report concluding that climate change would cause hundreds of billions of dollars in damage, and as much as 10 percent of the American economy could be destroyed by 2100 because of rising temperatures.
There is one group, however, that is slightly less anxious than the rest of us about this news: a small number of young professionals who are preparing homes away from the places where climate change is expected to strike the hardest. They are following in the footsteps of billionaires like Peter Thiel, who is investing in real estate in New Zealand in case a climate apocalypse occurs. Although they are doing it on a far more affordable scale.
They have studied maps and research that show the areas of the country that will be less affected by devastation, either because of geography or an ample supply of natural resources. And they are optimistically buying land and homes in these areas, many of them mentioned in an article published in Popular Science in December 2016 titled “These will be the best places to live in America in 2100 A.D.,” which has amassed 28,000 views in the past six months and gets about 100 Google search hits a day.
Not quite survivalists, they are nonetheless teaching themselves essential life skills — like how to grow their own food and make their own electricity — just in case things spin out of control, and the government can’t step in to help. They believe they are making sound real estate decisions by buying land on high ground that will appreciate in value, while at the same time developing a Plan B.
“We are blatantly facing a catastrophe, and all we’re doing is getting rid of straws,” Mr. Dalski said. “There are things I’m going to do for preservation.”
That includes buying land on a wooded, undeveloped part of Plattekill, a 3,500-foot mountain in the Catskills, because the area is filled with natural resources. The land is at a high elevation but it is also in a bowl, so it collects precipitation. Also, there are creeks that run through the area year-round, and he has family nearby.
Michael Phelan, 26, a Ph.D. student in bioengineering in Philadelphia, is deeply concerned about life in a post-climate change world as well.
“I’ve been hearing people talk about moving north to places like Michigan or Maine,” he said. “Seeing how recent government reports have detailed the threats of mass migration or economic loss, I wonder if it’s even possible to move away from it.”
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Mr. Phelan has entertained the idea of going someplace less vulnerable to the effects of climate change. He is also more focused on preparing for the natural disasters that are projected to increase in frequency and severity in the coming decades. “I wouldn’t say I’m a survivalist at this point, but I’m trying to learn more about preparedness,” he said. “It gives me a degree of confidence to know what to do in situations like that. At least in the very short term, if an emergency occurred, I would have enough of a plan to not panic.”
Others his age have parents and grandparents who are buying shelters they can use if and when climate-related disasters occur.
Dave Anderson, shown with his daughter, Casey Delperdang, bought a ranch in Oregon as a retreat for his extended family, in case their homes in Houston become uninhabitable.
Paul Wagtouicz
Dave Anderson lives in Houston, not far from his 27-year-old daughter, Casey Delperdang, her husband and their toddler. They all love being there; they are close to family and friends and get together often. But five years ago, Mr. Anderson decided that his family needed another place to congregate: a ranch in Oregon.
He bought a 70-acre property with plenty of space for hiking and relaxing in nature. There are rivers where the family can fish for salmon and steelhead trout, and forests where they can hunt for elk. One of his new neighbors assured him that they would never go hungry in this part of the world. “I can’t guarantee you’ll always like what you eat,” the neighbor told Mr. Anderson, “but you’ll eat.”
Mr. Anderson said he was looking for more than a vacation home; he wanted his family to have a place to escape to if living conditions in Houston became unbearable. “I’m no doomsday prepper,” he said. “That said, we intentionally purchased a relatively remote property well above sea level, with ample water and wildlife, with the expectation that the property would survive for generations of family use.”
While Mrs. Delperdang said she would be hesitant to move there, she acknowledged that her Plan B home could become a primary residence in a worst-case scenario. “During Hurricane Harvey, homes flooded that never had before,” she said. “I’m sure a lot of those people had looked at flood maps and thought they were in protected areas.”
In the past year, Mr. Shandas, of the Sustaining Urban Places Research Lab, said he has seen an increase in parents worried about the next generation’s safety.
“A few venture capital and investment bankers have taken me out to lunch or coffee to ask for a secret location, a place where their 18-year-old nephew or son or daughter should move,” he said. “It’s like they want to find a secret fishing spot. I always have to say, ‘I don’t have a magic ball, I can only tell you the conditions we are likely to see in the future in each place.’”
But hedging against climate change with an isolated home or piece of land isn’t a fail-safe strategy.
Bruce Riordan, program director for the Climate Readiness Institute at the University of California Berkeley, cautioned that it isn’t realistic to expect to live in a bubble. “Sure, you can grow your own vegetables, but what about wheat and grains?” he said. “And what happens when you need medical attention?”
Mastering surgery would certainly be a lot harder than learning to grow tomatoes.
A better strategy, Mr. Riordan suggested, would be to find a community that is intelligently preparing for whatever climate change may bring. He equated the situation to what California has done about earthquakes: They can’t be avoided, but we can build safer buildings, get better at predicting them and establish systems to care for vulnerable populations when they occur.
That type of planning is what pushed Josephine Ferorelli, 35, a yoga teacher and climate activist — she is a founder and a director of a grass-roots organization called Conceivable Future that focuses on the connection between climate change and reproductive rights — to buy an apartment in the Albany Park neighborhood of Chicago.
Ms. Ferorelli is well aware that her city is at high risk for wildfires and heat waves. “We are not taking good care of Lake Michigan; it’s possible we could have a Flint-type scenario,” she said, referring to the water-quality issues in Flint, Mich.
But she trusts her community, from the nonprofits to her neighbors, to handle whatever comes. “These are the people I want to depend on during hard times,” she said.
As Mr. Shandas said, “The most resilient have been those that have had communities of people working together to try to respond. Pulling away and isolating yourself is one of the most dangerous things you can do.”
There is also the likelihood that no matter where you set up your Plan B home, it won’t be immune to climate change.
Montana, for example, with its ample land, cooler climate and natural bodies of water, is considered an appealing place to move in the future. But Bill Milner, the former owner of a real estate agency in Whitefish, Mont., said his state is under siege as well.
“Our glaciers are melting, our summers are hotter and longer, winters less severe, forest fires have become annual events,” he said. “Climate change lives here, too.”
Then there is the reality that many younger people can’t afford to buy any home — let alone one in a place with a better climate.
“Most of my peer group just isn’t thinking about homeownership anywhere,” said Peter Hess, 31, who wrote the Popular Science article and lives in New York City, despite knowing the risks. “I guess we will stay here and drown from coastal flooding with our friends.”
But some of those who can afford to buy land — or have planned carefully to be able to do so eventually — are confident that they aren’t just making an investment in their safety, they’re also making a good financial move.
If “I can pick up a few acres, it is going to triple in value,” Mr. Dalski said. “In 100 years’ time, it will be worth something. People are going to have to move north at some point.”
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A version of this article appears in print on Dec. 1, 2018, on Page RE1 of the New York edition with the headline: Climate-Change Escape Plans. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe
These Maps Show How Climate Change Will Mess Up The Weather Where You Live
If you like the weather where you live, but are worried it’s not going to be the same as climate change wreaks havoc on meteorological systems, there’s now a way to know where you should be planning to move.
03.26.18
These Maps Show How Climate Change Will Mess Up The Weather Where You Live
The Climate Ex map will tell you what the weather will be like in 2070–and where to go to get the weather you like in 50 years.
Brown places on the map will have the biggest weather changes by 2070. [Screenshot: ClimageEx]
If you like the weather where you live but are worried it’s not going to be the same as climate change wreaks havoc on meteorological systems, there’s now a way to know where you should be planning to move. The Climate Ex map shows the climatic similarities between different places, as well as the projected climate changes for those places over time. If you’re happy with the San Diego weather, you can see where will have the same characteristics 50 years from now.
“If you know some place is good for something, like making wine, and climate is a big driver of that, you can search other similar places climatically,” says Tomasz Stepinski, the geography professor based at the University of Cincinnati who made the map, says in an interview. For example, California’s Napa Valley has climate twins on the west coast of South America and in northwestern Africa.
“tornadoes” – shows places that currently climatically similar to Oklahoma’s tornado valley. [Screenshot: ClimageEx]
The tool covers more than a million places on a 4-square-kilometer grid and brings together voluminous climate data from the WorldClim public database. You can search for climate similarities based on historical data as well as projections going forward to 2070. The latter reveals the places where climate change is set to have the greatest impact.
The biggest “dissimilarities” (indicated in brown) are in places like Greenland, which is set to become warmer and wetter by 2070, and in Nicaragua, which is set to become hotter and dryer. For the U.S., the biggest changes are on the West Coast, parts of the East Coast, and in the Mississippi Delta region. Much of the central U.S. is shaded in green, indicating less extreme changes in temperatures and precipitation patterns by 2070. (The model uses a middle-ground “most likely” climate forecast scenario.)
The tool is unique in the way it flattens out apparent differences between places. While Oklahoma and Paraguay might experience seasons in different halves of the year, their profiles match up when you draw a line through all their temperature and precipitation data. In other words, places can mirror each other, albeit at different points of the cycle. Stepinski developed the map with Pawel Netzel, a researcher from Poland.
Though climate change is set to have dramatic impacts, Stepinski says the differences between places are greater than the differences projected over time. Washington, D.C., and Moscow, for instance, are more different today and going forward than when you compare Washington in 2000 and Washington in 2070. Some things about the world will stay the same even if everything about the weather seems to be changing.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ben Schiller is a New York staff writer for Fast Company. Previously, he edited a European management magazine and was a reporter in San Francisco, Prague, and Brussels.
Tomasz F Stepinski
Title: Thomas Jefferson Chair Professor
Office: 215 Braunstein Hall
Tel: 513-556-3583
Email: stepintz@ucmail.uc.edu
Web: http://sil.uc.edu