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We're Barreling Towards Another Dust Bowl
In 1935, the Dust Bowl came to Washington—and if we don't change our ways, it could come back. A new report from the UN climate committee warns that much of the world risks the kind of land degradation that turned fertile farmland into desert during the 1930s
We Have To Fight Fast To Keep Our Soil From Slipping Away
August 19, 2019
In 1935, the Dust Bowl came to Washington—and if we don't change our ways, it could come back. A new report from the UN climate committee warns that much of the world risks the kind of land degradation that turned fertile farmland into desert during the 1930s. Luckily, this desolate stretch of history doesn't just serve as a warning. It also provides potential solutions.
The District of Columbia was an unlikely place for a dust storm. Though the Midwest had been shrouded in clouds of dust since 1932, the lawmakers discussing the Dust Bowl in March 1935 were more than 1,000 miles away from the disaster. Then, something uncanny happened: As lawmakers deliberated the very issue of how to stem a series of droughts and the erosion and catastrophic dust storms that followed, a literal cloud fell on the city. Soon, the capital's familiar marble monuments were covered in a layer of reddish dust. "A clay-colored veil hung before the Washington Monument, the Lincoln Memorial, the Capitol and the Library of Congress," a reporter observed. That scenario may come to mind when you read the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's new Climate Change and Land Report, which details the ways humans have stripped the planet and calls for sustainable land management practices, many of which were developed in the wake of the Dirty Thirties.
If we continue to use land the way we do now, the report concludes, our species faces a grim future indeed. Humans directly affect more than 70 percent of Earth’s terrain, and it shows: Population growth, farming, and other land use have taken their toll, fueling rapid shifts in climate and threatening Earth’s ability to sustain both humans and itself. Land can only absorb 29 percent of humans’ total CO2 emissions per year. And desertification—the same kind of land degradation that caused dust to fly during the 1930s—further threatens Earth’s climate.
It's been called "the greatest environmental challenge of our time," and for good reason. In desertification, areas with scarce water get even less moisture, and irrigated farmland goes from fertile to desiccated. Climatic trends play a role, but humans' land management mistakes fuel desertification, too.
Severely eroded farmland during the Dust Bowl.USDA
The Dust Bowl is a classic example. White settlers poured onto the United States' Great Plains during the mid-19th century, spurred by free property the federal government offered in exchange for cultivation. The semiarid prairie was home to a variety of native grasses, but the notion that it could be converted into productive farmland was misguided. The would-be farmers had no idea that the region went through extended wet periods followed by drier ones. Local plants had adapted to survive, and settlers thought that the existence of moisture meant more would follow. They also believed that "rain follows the plow"—a long-abandoned theory that the presence of farmers and settlers could bring humidity to dry climates—and the maxim set them up for disaster.
"They removed windbreaks and trees to plant fields in a relatively semi-arid area that had been wet," says climatologist Marc Svoboda, who directs the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska. Then, during the 1920s, Great Plains farmers planted huge amounts of wheat in response to international demand. Investing in the drought-intolerant crop meant uprooting resilient prairie grasses, which had previously helped the soil survive dry seasons by storing moisture in their deep roots. "When the drought came, that landscape was much more vulnerable," Svoboda says.
Come it did, and with catastrophic results. Beginning in 1931, the region experienced a series of four major drought episodes considered the worst in the nation's history. Farmers weren't prepared for this, or for the erosion that followed. Failing crops left soil rootless and loose, leaving it vulnerable to high winds.
Soon, epic dust storms swept the region. The same tempest that blew through Washington, DC left 12 million pounds of dust in Chicago alone. A month later, one of the most severe storms of the era, nicknamed "Black Sunday," enveloped the Great Plains. It was 1,000 miles long, contained 300,000 tons of dust, and traveled up to 100 miles per hour. This weather didn't just affect the land: Farm animals choked on dust and suffocated. At least 7,000 people died from "dust pneumonia" as a result of breathing in the fine particulates, and countless more were driven from their homes and livelihoods by the endless, swirling dirt. The storms are also thought to have hastened the spread of measles and other infectious diseases. It was an environmental catastrophe—and one that humans had the power to sidestep.
A farmer's son in Cimarron County, Oklahoma during the Dust Bowl era.Arthur Rothstein, for the Farm Security Administration
A farmer's son in Cimarron County, Oklahoma during the Dust Bowl era.Arthur Rothstein, for the Farm Security Administration
The IPCC's latest predictions sound awfully familiar. The committee warns that ongoing soil degradation will hasten desertification, which can fuel climate change. When soil degrades, it can't trap as much carbon, releasing this greenhouse gas (along with nitrous oxide) into the atmosphere. That means a warmer climate, which means more droughts and still more desertification. Resource-intensive uses of land, like massive farming operations, will cause water scarcity and degrade the soil—a vicious cycle like the one farmers faced during the Dust Bowl. During that event, human-induced land degradation not only led to dust storms, but made the droughts worse.
But the Dust Bowl might offer more than a warning. The event actually led to sensible land management practices that are still used today, says Charles Rice, a distinguished professor in Kansas State University's department of agronomy. In the wake of the Dust Bowl, he explains, the concept of soil conservation—protecting soil's fertility and keeping it from eroding—finally got traction in the United States.
Soil conservation has three guiding principles, he explains: don't till the soil, keep it covered, and keep crops diverse. Reduced tillage preserves the root pathways forged by preexisting plants. Those paths act like pores, allowing the ground to store water for use in dry times and soak it up more effectively during floods. Cover crops, like alfalfa, clover, and sorghum, keep the soil loose after a cash crop has been harvested. When cover crops become part of the soil during preparation for a crop like corn or wheat, they increase soil moisture and provide larger yields. Since they keep a field's precious soil covered and preserve its pores, cover crops also prevent earth from becoming so fine it turns into dust. Planting diversely prevents the nutrient drain that occurs when the same crops grow season after season. Rotating through different varieties acts more like a multivitamin, adding a variety of nutrients to the soil over time. Drought-resistant crops can step in occasionally to save water, and use the water that's already in the soil more efficiently.
Farmers can also conserve their soil by diversifying their farmland's portfolio, notes Rice. They might plant several kinds of crops in one area and keep livestock on another, so that drought doesn't put the entire swath of soil at risk.
Those post-Dust-Bowl practices have paid off. “Over time, we got better fertility and crops that have been bred for more drought tolerance,” says Rice. The United States’ investment in soil conservation has made the land more resilient than it was before the days of dust pneumonia.
But that doesn't mean it can't happen again. Rice warns that 21st-century farmers have to do more than just follow the basic tenets of soil conservation if they want to stave off further desertification. Landowners must rethink their approach to crops, profits, and technology. By sharing data and creating advanced computer models, he says, farmers could use better drought forecasting to dictate which crops they choose. Dust Bowl-era farmers didn't have computers to help them adapt.
Rice looks forward to a future where high-tech sensors help provide real-time data about soil moisture, and robots that water just the individual plants in need of moisture instead of soaking entire fields. "I guess I'm an optimist," he says. "The right investments could really help reduce desertification and provide some resilience to those Dust Bowl type events."
Despite a heaping dose of bad news about humanity’s use of land, the IPCC strikes an optimistic note, too. Not only can we prevent future desertification, but we can take the action required to do so in the near-term—if we’re willing to acknowledge the dust clouds ahead.
Lead photo: Dust storm approaching Stratford, Texas in 1935.NOAA George E. Marsh Album
Eindhoven: ‘We Are Ahead In The Field of Urban Greening’.
Eindhoven is one of the three demonstration cities participating in the European climate research project that will be experimenting for five years with projects which make the city climate-adaptive using nature-based solution
Uitzicht over de binnenstad van Eindhoven
Posted by Lucette Mascini | Aug 24, 2019 | Tags: Brabant, demonstration cities, Eindhoven, EU, TU/e
Eindhoven is one of the three demonstration cities participating in the European climate research project that will be experimenting for five years with projects which make the city climate-adaptive using nature-based solutions. The aim is for other cities to be able to apply any successful results in their own municipalities. We asked Luuk Postmes, project leader from the municipality of Eindhoven, which of these projects are being implemented.
You are leading the project on behalf of the municipality of Eindhoven. What does your job involve precisely?
“As a civil servant working on urban water matters for the municipality of Eindhoven, I am both a project leader and an advisor. That covers the sewage system, the underground water and the surface water. As a result of the changing climate, we have to deal with drought, torrential rain and extreme heat stress. The question is: how do you deal with all of this? Greenery is a solution for many climate problems. Greenery can be used to cool the city. In turn, greenery is also dependent on water. Since this project is about climate adaptation, I have become the leader of this European project for the municipality of Eindhoven. The De Dommel WaterBoard and the province are also indirectly involved. But they are not a partners in the project. Eindhoven University of Technology is however.”
Project leader Luuk Postmes from the Eindhoven council
In what way is TU Eindhoven involved?
This is due to the participation of Lighthouse [a division of TU Eindhoven that specializes in sharing smart urban solutions, ed.], which is led by Rianne Valkenburg and Elke den Ouden. They are responsible for drawing up roadmaps for the process that should make the city more climate-proof. They also work together with the Following Cities as part of the EU project and are developing a vision for the future in this area.
Why is Eindhoven a demonstration city and other cities are called ‘Following Cities’?
“We [the three demonstration cities of Eindhoven, Tampere and Genoa, ed.] had been working for some time on making the city climate more adaptive, among other things by making it greener. The Following Cities of the EU project – Stavanger, Cannes, Prague, Castellon, Başakşehir – are a bit further along in this trajectory. They are keeping an eye on things with us.”
Why is Eindhoven participating in this experiment?
“The subject resonates very well with what we are doing in Eindhoven. If such a European project is of interest to us, we will apply for it and make a proposal. Then it remains to be seen whether it will be selected.
Which projects is Eindhoven currently carrying out?
“Some projects have already been concluded. We are still working on others. We have arranged green spaces in several streets because these were completely paved. This is how we tackled the Wagenstraat and the Bilderdijkstraat. By using less pavement, less water is channeled into the sewerage system. For instance, we are working on greening the Vestdijk. This involves looking at different types of vegetation. We are working on the design of a greener Clausplein, which is currently completely paved over. The Victoria Park is already located at the back of a former Philips building nicknamed the Witte Dame on Clausplein. The Gender river will come through there the back of there as well. The area will have a park-like layout where residents will be able to enjoy the peace and quiet and the greenery around them. We are also experimenting with greenery that can be mowed and which has a positive effect on biodiversity. Another method for increasing biodiversity is to mow the grass only once a year. This way you get tall grass that attracts insects and the subsoil is better able to absorb water. What you see is that if you mow less often, there will also be more and more different types of flowers and shrubs. You can see this happening on Parklaan, for example.”
But is that innovative?
“This is something that we, as a city, are pioneering. Other cities are following us. You can see in some foreign cities that they are often paved over an incredible amount. Everything is sealed with stones, concrete or asphalt. You can even see that when there is a tree on the pavement, the ground around it is completely covered in asphalt all the way up to the trunk. In Eindhoven we are looking for the best ways to make the city greener. What kind of plants should you choose? Should you choose plants that are better able to withstand drought? Or should we water plants when there is a prolonged drought? Are there any possible changes that can be made in their management that will help them cope with climate change and which will increase biodiversity? We try to answer these kinds of questions. We are also investigating how we could create more green space in places where there is limited space. One example is Eindhoven city center. It will be redeveloped in the next few years with more green space. We are trying in particular to encourage private-sector initiatives.”
What problems will these projects resolve?
“Initially, the disruption caused by heavy rain will be reduced. We will automatically be able to improve biodiversity by opting for a greener approach. That’ s a bonus for this project.”
How much money is the EU investing in it?
“The total budget is more than 10 million euros. Each of the three demonstration cities will receive approximately 1.7 million euros. The rest of the money will go to the other partners, including the Following Cities.”
The EU wants the results of the projects to be quantifiable. How are you going to measure them?
” It is still a struggle to figure it all out. But some results are fairly easy to measure. You are able to count how many species of bees and butterflies that have been added to a project site. Along with what the distance is between residents and green spaces and how many cool, green spaces have been added to the city. I have made a proposal to measure the heat stress sensitivity in the city using satellite images. In order to measure the effect on water management, we measure the soil infiltration capacity of areas with long grass. We compare the rates with those of areas where the grass is shorter. It turns out that the lawnmower compresses the subsoil. Consequently, water seeps into the ground less quickly if the grass is short, making it more difficult for it to soak into the soil.”
When will the project be finished?
“We have about three years for the implementation of the projects and two years for the monitoring. However, we won’t be able to achieve that for all of these projects. The main reason for this is that they conflict with the planning of other projects and processes. You can’t overhaul the entire city center all at once. The process may therefore take longer as a result.”
What are they doing in Tampere and Genua?
“In Tampere, Finland, they are focusing on two housing projects, one of which is on a former industrial estate. The most important focus point here is maintaining the water quality of the surrounding lakes. They have to take the shorter days and the lower temperatures in winter into account more. One experiment concerned the purification of water through the use of algae. The question was whether this would also work at those extremely low temperatures during winter. Which is what did transpire. The experiment was a success. In addition, they are also conducting experiments involving the construction of green roofs. In Genoa, Italy, they are converting an old barracks site into a park-like environment where you will be able to stay and enjoy leisure activities. In particular, they are looking at the use of greenery as a means of regulating water management.”
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Lucette Mascini
Climate Change And Land An IPCC Special Report
The IPCC approved and accepted Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems at its 50th Session held on 2 – 7 August 2019
Climate Change And Land Report
An IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems
Download report
The IPCC approved and accepted Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems at its 50th Session held on 2 – 7 August 2019. The approved Summary for Policymakers (SPM) was presented at a press conference on 8 August 2019.
Press Release: Land is a Critical Resource, IPCC report says ( Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, Spanish)
Presentation (6.5 MB)
Background
At its 43rd Session (Nairobi, Kenya, 11 – 13 April 2016), the IPCC Panel decided to prepare a special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems.
Experts met on 13 – 17 February 2017 in Dublin, Ireland to prepare a draft outline for the report.
At its 45th Session (Guadalajara, Mexico, 28 – 31 March 2017), the Panel approved the outline for Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems.
The Special Report was developed under the joint scientific leadership of Working Groups I, II, III in cooperation with the Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, and supported by the Working Group III Technical Support Unit.
Authors and Review Editors
107 experts from 52 countries were selected as Coordinating Lead Authors and Lead Authors – who are working on each individual chapter – and Review Editors, who ensured that comments by experts and governments were given appropriate consideration as the report developed.
40% of the Coordinating Lead Authors are women. 53% of the authors are from developing countries, making this the first IPCC report to have more authors from developing countries than from developed countries. The full list of Coordinating Lead Authors, Lead Authors and Review Editors is here.
A call for nomination of authors was sent to governments, observer organizations and IPCC Bureau Members on 5 April 2017. Graphics that provide background information about the nominees are available here
Lead Author Meetings
First Lead Author Meeting: Oslo, Norway, 16 – 20 October 2017
Second Lead Author Meeting: Christchurch, New Zealand, 26 – 30 March 2018
Third Lead Author Meeting: Dublin, Ireland, 3 – 7 September 2018
Fourth Lead Author Meeting: Cali, Colombia, 11 – 15 February 2019
Pre-Scoping
The Steering Committee for the Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems circulated a questionnaire to IPCC Focal Points and Observer Organizations ahead of the Scoping Meeting in February 2017 to get input on the structure and contents of the report. You can download the questionnaire and stakeholder consultation report here.
Scoping
A scoping meeting for the Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems was held on 13 – 17 February 2017 in Dublin, Ireland. The meeting resulted in a draft scoping paper describing the objectives and an annotated outline of the Special Report as well as the process and timeline for its preparation.
All the details of the scoping meeting are available in the scoping meeting report.
Adopted outline – (The dates of the 1st Lead Author Meeting have been corrected to read 16-20 October 2017)
Steering Committee
List of expertise
Scoping meeting programme
Background report for the scoping meeting
List of participants
Questionnaire and stakeholder consultation report
Timeline
Second Lead Author Meeting 26-30 March 2018
Expert review of First Order Draft Deadline 5 August 11 June-5 August 2018
Third Lead Author Meeting 3-7 September 2018
Literature deadline : Literature for consideration by report authors must be submitted to publishers
by this date 28 October 2018
Expert and Government review of Second Order Draft 19 November-14 January 2018-19
Fourth Lead Author Meeting 11-16 February 2019
SPM drafting workshop 20-21 March 2019
Literature deadline :Literature for consideration by report authors must be accepted for publication
by this date 7 April 2019
Final Government distribution 29 April-19 June 2019 Approval Plenary Joint WGI-II-III session 2-6 August 2019
Download PDF here.
Graphics
Graphics and statistical reports concerning the initial nominations and shortlisting of each stage are available in the public portal. Statistical reports include nominations by:
Nominations by Date
Citizenship
Gender and Region
Graduated Year
Observer Organizations
Nominating Countries
Previous IPCC Experience
Distribution by Region and Country
Regional Expertise
Sectors
Statistics
and more
Relevant Links
Adopted outline – (The dates of the 1st Lead Author Meeting have been corrected to read 16-20 October 2017)
IPCC-XLV/Doc. 7 – Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Products – Outline of the Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems
IPCC-XLV/INF. 7 – Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) products – Outline of the Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems
IPCC-XLIII/INF. 7: Special Reports – Proposed themes for Special Reports during the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) cycle
IPCC-XLIII/INF. 8: Special Reports Commentary from the Co-chairs of Working Groups I, II and III on each of the proposals for Special Reports contained in document IPCC-XLIII/INF. 7
IPCC-XLIII/INF. 9: Special Reports – Commentary from the Co-Chairs of Working Groups I, II and III on clusters of proposals for Special Reports contained in document IPCC-XLIII/INF. 7
IPCC-XLIII/INF. 19: Sixth Assessment Report Products – Information document
Climate Change Threatens The World’s Food Supply, United Nations Warns
The world’s land and water resources are being exploited at “unprecedented rates,” a new United Nations report warns, which combined with climate change is putting dire pressure on the ability of humanity to feed itself
Cattle grazing outside Sokoto, Nigeria, where large-scale farming is in conflict with local communities. Credit Credit Luis Tato/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Aug. 8, 2019
The world’s land and water resources are being exploited at “unprecedented rates,” a new United Nations report warns, which combined with climate change is putting dire pressure on the ability of humanity to feed itself.
The report, prepared by more than 100 experts from 52 countries and released in summary form in Geneva on Thursday, found that the window to address the threat is closing rapidly. A half-billion people already live in places turning into desert, and soil is being lost between 10 and 100 times faster than it is forming, according to the report.
Climate change will make those threats even worse, as floods, drought, storms and other types of extreme weather threaten to disrupt, and over time shrink, the global food supply. Already, more than 10 percent of the world’s population remains undernourished, and some authors of the report warned in interviews that food shortages could lead to an increase in cross-border migration.
A particular danger is that food crises could develop on several continents at once, said Cynthia Rosenzweig, a senior research scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and one of the lead authors of the report. “The potential risk of multi-breadbasket failure is increasing,” she said. “All of these things are happening at the same time.”
The report also offered a measure of hope, laying out pathways to addressing the looming food crisis, though they would require a major re-evaluation of land use and agriculture worldwide as well as consumer behavior. Proposals include increasing the productivity of land, wasting less food and persuading more people to shift their diets away from cattle and other types of meat.
“One of the important findings of our work is that there are a lot of actions that we can take now. They’re available to us,” Dr. McElweesaid. “What some of these solutions do require is attention, financial support, enabling environments.”
The summary was released Thursday by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an international group of scientists convened by the United Nations that pulls together a wide range of existing research to help governments understand climate change and make policy decisions. The I.P.C.C. is writing a series of climate reports, including one last year on the disastrous consequences if the planet’s temperature rises just 1.5 degrees Celsius above its preindustrial levels, as well as an upcoming report on the state of the world’s oceans.
Some authors also suggested that food shortages are likely to affect poorer parts of the world far more than richer ones. That could increase a flow of immigration that is already redefining politics in North America, Europe and other parts of the world.
“People’s lives will be affected by a massive pressure for migration,” said Pete Smith, a professor of plant and soil science at the University of Aberdeen and one of the report’s lead authors. “People don’t stay and die where they are. People migrate.”
Between 2010 and 2015 the number of migrants from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras showing up at the United States’ border with Mexico increased fivefold, coinciding with a dry period that left many with not enough food and was so unusual that scientists suggested it bears the signal of climate change.
Winnowing wheat at a grain market in Amritsar, India.Credit Raminder Pal Singh/EPA, via Shutterstock
Harvesting in Xinjiang, northwest China.Credit China Daily/Reuters
Barring action on a sweeping scale, the report said, climate change will accelerate the danger of severe food shortages. As a warming atmosphere intensifies the world’s droughts, flooding, heat waves, wildfires and other weather patterns, it is speeding up the rate of soil loss and land degradation, the report concludes.
Higher concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere — a greenhouse gas put there mainly by the burning of fossil fuels — will also reduce food’s nutritional quality, even as rising temperatures cut crop yields and harm livestock.
Those changes threaten to exceed the ability of the agriculture industry to adapt.
In some cases, the report says, a changing climate is boosting food production because, for example, warmer temperatures will mean greater yields of some crops at higher latitudes. But on the whole, the report finds that climate change is already hurting the availability of food because of decreased yields and lost land from erosion, desertification and rising seas, among other things.
Overall if emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise, so will food costs, according to the report, affecting people around the world.
“You’re sort of reaching a breaking point with land itself and its ability to grow food and sustain us,” said Aditi Sen, a senior policy adviser on climate change at Oxfam America, an antipoverty advocacy organization.
In addition, the researchers said, even as climate change makes agriculture more difficult, agriculture itself is also exacerbating climate change.
The report said that activities such as draining wetlands — as has happened in Indonesia and Malaysia to create palm oil plantations, for example — is particularly damaging. When drained, peatlands, which store between 530 and 694 billion tons of carbon dioxide globally, release that carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere.Carbon dioxide is a major greenhouse gas, trapping the sun’s heat and warming the planet. Every 2.5 acres of peatlands release the carbon dioxide equivalent of burning 6,000 gallons of gasoline.
And the emission of carbon dioxide continues long after the peatlands are drained. Of the five gigatons of greenhouse gas emissions that are released each year from deforestation and other land-use changes, “One gigaton comes from the ongoing degradation of peatlands that are already drained,” said Tim Searchinger, a senior fellow at the World Resources Institute, an environmental think tank, who is familiar with the report. (By comparison, the fossil fuel industry emitted about 37 gigatons of carbon dioxide last year, according to the institute.)
An ethanol refinery in Tianjin, China.CreditChina Stringer Network/Reuters
A cattle market in Lagos, Nigeria.CreditFlorian Plaucheur/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Similarly, cattle are significant producers of methane, another powerful greenhouse gas, and an increase in global demand for beef and other meats has fueled their numbers and increased deforestation in critical forest systems like the Amazon.
Since 1961 methane emissions from ruminant livestock, which includes cows as well as sheep, buffalo and goats, have significantly increased, according to the report. And each year, the amount of forested land that is cleared — much of that propelled by demand for pasture land for cattle — releases the emissions equivalent of driving 600 million cars.
Overall, the report says there is still time to address the threats by making the food system more efficient. The authors urge changes in how food is produced and distributed, including better soil management, crop diversification and fewer restrictions on trade. They also call for shifts in consumer behavior, noting that at least one-quarter of all food worldwide is wasted.
Read more about food and climate change
Your Questions About Food and Climate Change, Answered
April 30, 2019
From Apples to Popcorn, Climate Change Is Altering the Foods America Grows
April 30, 2019
Central American Farmers Head to the U.S., Fleeing Climate Change
April 13, 2019
But protecting the food supply and cutting greenhouse emissions can also come into conflict with each other, forcing hard choices.
For instance, the widespread use of strategies such as bioenergy — like growing corn to produce ethanol — could lead to the creation of new deserts or other land degradation, the authors said. The same is true for planting large numbers of trees (something often cited as a powerful strategy to pull carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere), which can push crops and livestock onto less productive land.
Planting as many trees as possible would reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by about nine gigatons each year, according to Pamela McElwee, a professor of human ecology at Rutgers University and one of the report’s lead authors. But it would also increase food prices as much as 80 percent by 2050.
“We cannot plant trees to get ourselves out of the problem that we’re in,” Dr. McElwee said. “The trade-offs that would keep us below 1.5 degrees, we’re not talking about them. We’re not ready to confront them yet.”
Rice cultivation outside Prayagraj, India.CreditRajesh Kumar Singh/Associated Press
Flooded farms near Craig, Mo.CreditScott Olson/Getty Images
Preventing global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius is likely to require both the widespread planting of trees as well as “substantial” bioenergy to help reduce the use of fossil fuels, the report finds. And if temperatures increase more than that, the pressure on food production will increase as well, creating a vicious circle.
“Above 2 degrees of global warming there could be an increase of 100 million or more of the population at risk of hunger,” Edouard Davin, a researcher at ETH Zurich and an author of the report, said by email. “We need to act quickly.”
The report also calls for institutional changes, including better access to credit for farmers in developing countries and stronger property rights. And for the first time, the I.P.C.C. cited indigenous people and their knowledge of land stewardship as resources to be tapped. “Agricultural practices that include indigenous and local knowledge can contribute to overcoming the combined challenges of climate change, food security, biodiversity conservation, and combating desertification and land degradation,” the report’s authors wrote.
It comes at a time when indigenous people are currently under threat. According to a report released this year by the nonprofit organization Global Witness, which looks at the links between conflicts and environmental resources, an average of three people were killed per week defending their land in 2018, with more than half of them killed in Latin America.
Overall, the report said that the longer policymakers wait, the harder it will be to prevent a global crisis. “Acting now may avert or reduce risks and losses, and generate benefits to society,” the authors wrote. Waiting to cut emissions, on the other hand, risks “irreversible loss in land ecosystem functions and services required for food, health, habitable settlements and production.”
For more news on climate and the environment, follow @NYTClimate on Twitter.
Correction: Aug. 9, 2019
An earlier version of this article misquoted and misattributed comments about proposals to address a possible food crisis. Those comments were made by Pamela McElwee, not Cynthia Rosenzweig. In addition, part of the quote was rendered incorrectly. Dr. McElwee said, “What some of these solutions do require is attention, financial support, enabling environments.” She did not say, “But what some of these solutions do require is attention, financial support, enabling environments.”
Christopher Flavelle covers climate adaptation, focusing on how people, governments and businesses respond to the effects of global warming. @cflav
Planting The Seeds For Dramatic Changes In Agriculture
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently released an important report titled “Climate Change and Land,” which chronicled the impact the agricultural industry is having on climate change
August 15, 2019
marsraw/Pixabay
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently released an important report titled “Climate Change and Land,” which chronicled the impact the agricultural industry is having on climate change. Demonstrating the significance of that report, Alan Sano, a farmer in the San Joaquin Valley of California, wrote an op-ed in the New York Times titled, “Farmers Don’t Need to Read the Science. We Are Living It.”
But what is most interesting about the IPCC’s report is that they assume that traditional farming practices can be modified to address the crisis we face. Their recommendations are mostly focused on dealing with the fact that “global food production is now thought to be responsible for up to 37% of greenhouse gas emissions.” But there are other issues that make our traditional approach to farming unsustainable.
The global population will reach 9.7 billion by 2050.
Every hour, we lose 175 acres of farmland to real estate development.
A third of the planet’s land is severely degraded and fertile soil is being lost at the rate of 24bn tonnes a year.
Scientists say that the earth has lost a third of its arable land over the last 40 years.
A quarter of humanity faces a looming water crisis.
Agriculture accounts for about 70% of global water withdrawals.
Nitrate from agriculture is now the most common chemical contaminant in the world’s groundwater aquifers.
Those are just some of the reasons why those searching for a sustainable solution are exploring the alternative of hydroponics—specifically with something that has come to be known as “vertical farming.”
Rick LeBlanc identified the additional benefits of vertical farming, including the fact that it “allows us to produce more crops from the same square footage of growing area.” For example, “1 acre of an indoor area offers equivalent production to at least 4-6 acres of outdoor capacity,” while using 70-95 percent less water than traditional farming.
As Danny Danko explains, “hydroponic cultivation — the growing of plants without soil — is a science as ancient as the fabled Hanging Gardens of Babylon and as modern as a future NASA mission to Mars.” It has even played a role in feeding U.S. troops since World War II.
During World War II, American troops overseas grew vegetables hydroponicaly to ease the burden of transporting perishable food to barren islands in the Pacific Theater and the arid regions of the Middle East…
The military kept growing hydro long after WWII, as Lt. Col. Marcus E. Cooper, Quartermaster, 1st Cavalry Division reported during the Korean War, “While we were in Kumchon we began to receive our first shipments of fresh vegetables. These were airlifted from the hydroponic farms in Japan. We had a standing priority on fresh foods for the hospital, then for the front-line troops. These vegetables were a real morale-builder.”
LeBlanc points out that the biggest downside to vertical farming right now is financial feasibility, due to the high capital costs associated with start-up. But he notes that “the financial situation is changing, however, as the industry matures and technologies improve.” That is where the federal government could play a huge role, similar to what was accomplished with renewable energy by the stimulus package, as described by Michael Grunwald.
Obama promised that he would double renewable power generation during his first term, and he did. In 2008, people had the sense that renewable energy was a tiny industry in the United States. What they forget is it was a tiny dead industry — because these wind and solar projects were essentially financed through tax credits, which required people with tax liability, and everybody had lost money, so nobody needed [the tax credits]. By changing those to a cash grant, it instantly unlocked this industry.
Any so-called “Green New Deal” will need to provide seed money (pun intended) to explore dramatic changes to how we think about agriculture and farming. The potential we’ve already seen from hydroponics and vertical farming could lead us in that direction.
We Need To Change Our Farming & Eating Habits Or Face 'Catastrophic' Global Warming Says UN
When it comes to global warming, it's not just logging and pollution that's making things worse. It's also that our everyday lifestyles are wasteful. Now the UN says if we don't get it together and change our diets, we could be in for catastrophic levels of global warming
Gwyn D'Mello Aug 08, 2019
When it comes to global warming, it's not just logging and pollution that's making things worse. It's also that our everyday lifestyles are wasteful.
Now the UN says if we don't get it together and change our diets, we could be in for catastrophic levels of global warming.
IMAGES COURTESY: REUTERS
This is the organisation's first comprehensive on the link between climate change and human land usage. It suggests that we need to change our diets to avoid food waste, and also adopt more sustainable means of farming, in order to tackle climate change.
The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that human activity has caused significant land degradation, deforestation and destruction of natural habitats. All of these effects together have resulted in a significant amount of carbon dioxide being released from the soil and into the atmosphere.
The report says that we need to adopt diets with more plant-based foods such as grains, nuts, fruit, and beans, as well as animal-based food produced with low greenhouse gas emissions.
Until now, the land has been responsible for absorbing a lot of carbon dioxide, thanks to photosynthesis in plants and the like. Cutting down all those trees, plus other climate-change effects like wildfires and desertification has resulted in all that land now releasing at least a third of all greenhouse gases into the air.
"This is a perfect storm. Limited land, an expanding human population, and all wrapped in a suffocating blanket of climate emergency," said Professor David Reay from the University of Edinburgh. "Crop yields are already being hit hard by climate change, staples like wheat, maize and rice are all at risk. The global web that is our food system means that impacts on farms thousands of miles away ripple right back to our own dinner plates."
"Earth has never felt smaller, its natural ecosystems never under such direct threat."
The report indicates that the Earth's soil now holds only about one percent of the planet's total carbon, as opposed to the seven percent they earlier held. The solution to this problem, the UN says, is to immediately stop deforestation, and stop degrading the soil with exploitative farming methods.
We also need to diversify our farming to avoid leaching the soil of its nutrients. Farmers need to instead start relying on a mix of farming a mix of crop, as well as raising livestock, in order to allow the land to be more resilient to the effects of climate change.
For instance, that could mean mixing banana plantations with coffee. The former provides shade to the latter, and the mix of crops allows the farmer to be less reliant on a single crop. And the key to promoting this experts say is to first and foremost end subsidies on big single crops like corn and sugarcane.
Report Finds Agriculture A Leading Cause of Climate Change
If we want to combat our changing climate, we need to rethink the way we produce food, says new report by the United Nations
by Rodale Institute
August 9, 2019
If we want to combat our changing climate, we need to rethink the way we produce food, says new report by the United Nations.
The Problem
A new report released by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which examines how land use changes have contributed to the warming of Earth’s atmosphere, has concluded that agriculture and forestry have contributed nearly a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions.
While fossil fuel usage is still identified as the largest driver of climate change, emissions from livestock, nitrogen fertilizers, and deforestation have significant effects on the warming of the atmosphere.
The only way to keep global warming below the 2-degree Celsius threshold is to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, partly by changing the way we use land and produce food.
The report underscores the urgency of adopting regenerative and holistic farming techniques that are able to sequester carbon, increase soil health, and reduce fossil fuel use.
Climate change can also negatively affect agriculture, states the report. As the Earth experiences more extreme weather events, agricultural systems must be resilient to flooding, droughts, and other meteorological anomalies in order to continue feeding the population.
READ THE REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Solution
Regenerative organic farming prioritizes working with natural systems to produce food, instead of relying on synthetic inputs, which can help mitigate climate change.
Rodale Institute’s Farming Systems Trial has found that organic systems use 45% less energy, release 40% fewer carbon emissions, and have the potential to produce yields up to 40% higher in times of drought over conventional systems.
Utilizing methods like organic no-till allows the soil to remain undisturbed, capitalizing on its potential to sequester carbon in the ground and return nutrients to our food.
As illustrated by the IPCC’s report, changing our land use practices while maintaining food security is critical for the future of our society. Regenerative organic agriculture is one solution for the problem of continuing to feed the world while healing our planet.
The Farms of The Future Were Built For Outer Space. Will They Work On Earth?
It will be years until NASA is ready for a journey to the red planet, but if Earth continues to suffer from climate change, Mars could come to us.
It will be years until NASA is ready for a journey to the red planet, but if Earth continues to suffer from climate change, Mars could come to us.
August 13, 2019
Visitors look at vegetables growing under artificial light on a vertical farm, in the IKEA: Gardening Will Save the World garden, in London on May 20th, 2019. (Photo: Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP/Getty Images)
On Mars, we'll all farm underground. Our crops will grow in a greenhouse, where large, parabolic mirrors focus the sun's weak rays and transmit them through fiber optic cables. We'll harvest vegetables to eat—but also the purified water that evaporates from their leaves. We'll all be vegan, because raising animals for food will be too expensive. And, most importantly, the plants will give us oxygen.
"That's the starting point to a whole civilization right there," says Utah State University researcher Bruce Bugbee. This is Bugbee's vision, one he's been dreaming of and testing and revising for years as a plant engineer with NASA.
Astronauts going to Mars can eat all the freeze-dried food they're able to ship, but if humans are going to survive on the planet they'll need to plants to produce oxygen. Not just any photosynthesizer will do: Mars is a difficult environment, with many challenges for farmers. Crops will need to be able to thrive in a small area, retain their nutrient content, and still taste good. Structures where they grow on the surface will need to withstand basketball-sized meteorites. The technology used to grow the plants will take massive amounts of energy. Mars also presents the ultimate recycling challenge, since astronauts can't pack all the water and nutrients they need on a two-and-a-half-year space flight.
Bugbee and his colleagues have been working on all these problems for decades, in a sometimes fantastical bid to support life on Mars (and, in the meantime, on space shuttles). Decades ago, NASA researchers ruled out some of the easiest plants to grow indoors, like algae: not enough sustenance, Bugbee says. Very tall crops like corn and sugarcane were also nixed because they wouldn't fit easily into the plant habitats.
What the astronauts really wanted was something green. "They say that having the texture and flavor and color and aromas of fresh foods apparently—and I believe it—really does add to the experience of eating," says NASA plant physiologist Raymond Wheeler.
Scientists started looking at traditional field crops like lettuce, tomatoes, and broccoli. Right now, astronauts are growing mixed greens 250 miles above Earth on the International Space Station, using two small, sealed greenhouse units called Veggie. NASA researchers have planned and adjusted and measured for everything—including which types of lettuce tastes best in space. Astronauts' clogged sinuses already make it so they "can't taste much of anything," according to Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield, but the researchers are also curious to see whether the space environment affects a plant's flavor compounds and nutrient levels. Panels of specialists at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston typically conduct formal taste tests, but sometimes the researchers sample a leaf or two themselves.
What Bugbee and his team didn't expect is that the technology they created for this grandiose, futuristic mission would become somewhat eclipsed by those using it to farm on more familiar terrain.
In 2017, NASA commissioned a space farming project to figure out how to grow food on Mars, but they were also hoping to make some discoveries that could improve crop yields overall. The problems that space farmers of the future will face are similar to those already plaguing earthbound agriculture as climate change grows worse, including a dwindling water supply and poor soil. Now, researchers in Utah and three California universities—NASA's partners with the Center for the Utilization of Biological Engineering in Space—are working on projects that can sustain life not just on Mars, but on Earth.
"I think the reason NASA funds us is a powerful human fascination with being able to go inside a closed system and grow your own food," Bugbee says. "What if the atmosphere went bad and we had to build a big dome ... and go inside and live in it?"
In 1988, Wheeler built the first working vertical farm—growing plants on shelves, typically in a warehouse or storage container—at the agency's Kennedy Space Center. Wheeler's farm was 25 feet high and equipped with a hydroponic system for growing plants in water and high-pressure sodium lamps, the type commonly used for street lighting. All together, it was 20 square meters of growing space—almost 90,000 times less than the size of the average outdoor United States farm. According to Wheeler's calculations, it would take 50 square meters of plants to provide enough food and oxygen—and remove enough carbon dioxide—for one human in space. (Astronauts won't be using sodium lamps, though: A few years after Wheeler's innovation, a different group of NASA-funded researchers patented another significant piece of technology to indoor farmers: LEDs, which require much less electricity than sodium lights and are now used to power most greenhouses.)
Wheeler was focused on optimizing the area inside a chamber aboard a NASA space shuttle—and up seemed like the best way to go. "One of the things you have to think about in space is volume efficiency," he says. "You're vertically and dimensionally constrained." The team had to pick shorter crops: wheat, soybeans, potatoes, lettuce, and tomatoes.
In space, resources are limited: NASA scientists have to extract and reuse the nutrients from excess plant material and human waste; they collect water from the condensation that collects in the closed chambers. Here on Earth, water is also growing increasingly precious—climate change will make droughts more frequent and severe, devastating crop yields and making some staple crops like corn and soybeans obsolete. Every day, Earth looks a little more desolate, a little more like Mars.
When Wheeler started, the term "vertical farming" didn't exist yet. Today it's a $10 billion industry attracting interest from Silicon Valley and start-ups all over the world. Its acolytes believe the technology will one day completely replace conventional field agriculture, allowing businesses to grow crops year-round and indoors, insulated from the next drought or flood and the effects of climate change. "People imagine that we'll grow everything indoors, in skyscrapers in the middle of Manhattan," Bugbee says. "It's a wildly popular idea."
Sonio Lo, the chief executive officer of the biggest vertical farming company in the world, Crop One Holdings, says she believes vertical farming can "liberate agriculture from climate change and geography."
Crop One broke ground on the world's largest vertical farm last November in Dubai: a five-story, 130,000-square-feet warehouse, capable of producing three tons of leafy greens a day. The company is also growing chard, arugula, and other greens in large, sealed rooms—year-round. "I made my whole management team stand in the supermarket and give out samples of what we were growing in the middle of the Boston winter," Lo says.
Soon people across the U.S. can try it too. Crop One is building new farms in the northeast, southwest, and California, where it will grow food to sell through its FreshBox Farms brand.
While researchers have been quick to condemn vertical farming's promises as over-hyped, even the industry's greatest critics acknowledge that this approach eliminates some of the challenges with conventional agriculture: Since vertical farms are located in compact warehouses, they're often located much closer to their markets than, say, the corn belt is to a city, allowing producers to cut down on food waste and save on transportation costs—a major contributor to U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.
The lettuce grows in a controlled environment, free of pests and pathogens, meaning farmers can grow food without pesticides or herbicides, which have a massive environmental and human-health cost. Vertical farmers can also recycle their nutrients—like astronauts do in space—preventing phosphorus or nitrogen from flooding into the world's waterways and wreaking havoc with algal blooms. And indoor growth systems can be very productive: When all the conditions are right, researchers have surpassed record crop yields in the field by as much as six times.
Lo says that a vertical farm using 100 percent renewables has one-tenth of the carbon impact of a conventional farm. But few companies have reached this goal; most are still moving toward a combination of renewable energy and non-renewables to power the electric lights used to grow the plants. It takes a lot of land to generate that much solar—about five acres of solar panels to supply the light for just one acre of indoor farm, Bugbee estimates. That's why many have resorted to fossil fuels, breaking one of vertical farming's great promises. "It takes massive amounts of fossil fuel energy, so, environmentally, it's really a disaster," Bugbee says. "Those people have used many of the principles that we've developed through NASA."
Bugbee's current project could help with that. His lab at Utah State is using LEDs and fiber optics to grow plants under different types of lights, with different ratios of colors—ultra violet, blue, green, red, far red (out of the limit of human vision)—to manipulate both photosynthesis and plant shape. The goal, he says, is to find "the most efficient system possible." Right now, the technology is too expensive: millions of dollars to light one building. But eventually, he believes fiber optics will replace electric lights for good.
But there are other qualms with vertical farming: Instead of helping to colonize space—the future that Mars researchers envision for their technology—vertical farms might take over city real estate, at a time when housing costs are extremely high. In some countries and some industries, it already has: Japan has had flourishing plant factories for the last 10 years. The fledgling cannabis industry has also started to ramp up its indoor production, poised to become even more profitable.
Lo says it won't be long until greens grown indoors cost the same as those in the field. "Field-grown food will continue to rise in cost, and course the climate is also changing," she says. "From a cost perspective, vertical farming will become competitive very quickly."
Others are more skeptical: "Economically, will they succeed? That question is still ongoing, because they always have to compete with field agriculture," Wheeler says. "What's their cost to pay for electric power? What are their labor costs? Are these operations sustainable? All of this is sort of a living experiment right now."
Technology for farming in climate change may be a by-product of NASA's research, but it has helped the agency ensure funding for its work in space. In response to the skeptic who doubts whether it's worth figuring out how to farm for a Mars mission we might never see, one only has to point to vertical farms in Boston or Seattle that already use some of NASA's innovations.
But Bugbee believes these earthly pursuits can be just as futuristic (or deluded) as those meant for space. "People that do it say they're going to save the planet ... but they have to have a lot of fossil fuels," he says. "It'll tell you all kinds of rosy pictures about it—that it saves water, it saves fertilizer."
He's not quite comfortable with his research being used to prop up this industry, now flooded with billions of dollars of venture capital. "I'm not doing it to make this more possible on Earth," he says. "We get asked all the time about the spinoffs: Could you do this, could you do that."
We may never make it to Mars. It will be years until NASA is ready for a journey to the red planet, and many more until Bugbee would be able to build his greenhouse underground, tucked away from meteorites. But if Earth continues on this collision course, Mars could come to us.
TAGS CLIMATE CHANGE VERTICAL FARMING NASA OUTER SPACE PLANTS AGRICULTURE
BY EMILY MOON
Emily Moon is a staff writer at Pacific Standard. Previously she worked at the Chicago Sun-Times and the Herald-Times in Bloomington, Indiana. She is a graduate of Northwestern University.
Get Ready For New Forms of Extreme Weather: Hurricanes Plus Heat Waves
Most discussion of climate change and extreme weather focuses on how existing weather hazards such as heat waves, floods, and droughts are likely to become more frequent and intense
by Sarah DeWeerdt | Jul 23, 2019
Most discussion of climate change and extreme weather focuses on how existing weather hazards such as heat waves, floods, and droughts are likely to become more frequent and intense.
But climate change could also spark the emergence of new forms of extreme weather that are especially difficult to prepare for because we’ve never seen them before.
Suppose, for example, a powerful tropical cyclone causes widespread power outages and then, before the grid can be repaired, a heat wave hits. The lack of power for air conditioning to mitigate the heat could put a lot of people at risk.
Until now, such events have been rare. But according to an analysis published yesterday in Nature Climate Change, if high carbon emissions continue these combined tropical cyclone-heat events could be an annual occurrence by the end of the century.
Researchers gathered records of 121 major tropical cyclones that made landfall in the Northwest Pacific, South Indian, and North Atlantic basins between 1979 and 2017. They computed the probability of a cyclone affecting given location on land for each day of the year.
They also used temperature records to compute the probability of locations experiencing a heat index of 40.6 °C (105 °F) for each day of the year. This enabled them to model the likelihood of a heat wave occurring in the 30 days after a storm’s landfall. A 2015 map of global population added the final piece: how many people might be affected by these tropical cyclone-heat events.
Such events can be expected to occur about once a decade, the researchers calculated, and to affect about 400,000 people. In fact, four tropical cyclones were followed by heat waves between 1979 and 2017. But as luck would have it, they all occurred in remote areas of northwest Australia, with only about 1,000 people affected.
Several other major storms have been followed by heat that fell just short of the 40.6 °C cutoff, including Cyclone Marian that hit Bangladesh in 1991, Hurricane Emily that struck the Caribbean and Mexico in 2007, and Typhoon Rammasun that smashed into the Philippines in 2014.
And as climate change proceeds, such storms will become more and more likely to be followed by heat waves. For example, with 2 °C of global warming, there’s a greater than 70% chance that a storm like Cyclone Marian would be followed by extreme heat.
Heat waves following tropical cyclones would be expected to occur 7 out of every 30 years and affect 1.2 million people with 1.5 °C of warming, and 11 out of every 30 years affecting 2 million people with 2 °C of warming. If global average temperature increases by 4 °C, they could occur once a year or more with 11.8 million people at risk.
If anything, the analysis probably underplays the risk. That’s because the calculations don’t take into account the fact that tropical cyclones are predicted to happen more often with climate change, nor do they account for future population growth in regions prone to both tropical cyclones and extreme heat. Plus, the heat index tends to be elevated in the days before a tropical storm – meaning evacuations in the path of a coming storm could also become increasingly dangerous.
Source: Matthews T. et al. “An emerging tropical cyclone-deadly heat compound hazard.” Nature Climate Change 2019..
Meteorologists Affirm Farmer Angst About Summer Heat, Early Frost
“The problem we’re facing is this is the wettest year in the last hundred and 24 years according to NASA.”
July 09, 2019
Mother Nature has thrown farmers curve ball after curve ball in the 2019 growing season. First a long, late and historically wet winter delayed planting for much of the Corn Belt. Now, many farmers are facing hot dry weather and losing sleep over the thought of an early frost. Unfortunately, Kirk Heinz and Michael Clark of BAMWX.com validated those fears on an episode of AgriTalk this week.
“Into the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley area, if you can envision from there to the desert southwest with a with a void in the middle, from [tropical storm] Barry, that's where the risk is keeping things too dry,” Heinz explained adding a pressure ridge will continue to keep that area dry between now and July 23. “It's been wet, but you know, hey, we're kind of turning things around.”
Basically, the areas that have been swampiest will be the hottest and driest until at least July 23. What’s special about that date? Well, forecasting models used by Clark and Heinz show that would be the timeframe where a weather pattern shake-up could occur.
“That that would be the date where we start raising the red flags in terms of, if that does not develop, we could see this extended warmer, drier period linger longer, deeper into July and maybe even early August,” Clark explains. “That's why it's a top priority for us.”
Farmers across the country are expressing concern about how their crops could endure a hot and dry growing season.
“We've spoken with some of our guys around here who are concerned. Everything's just way behind and there's not a good root system and so people are worried,” he said. “Throughout Central Indiana where we are if it's not a rock-solid ground it's brown grass and that just doesn't look. It's literally flashed dry, it's pretty crazy. I never would have thought that it could have gone like this that fast, but it has. Anyone can tell you that around here.”
Setting Records
While analysts, farmers and meteorologists search for analog years to compare 2019 to, Clark and Heinz point out at this is a year for the record books.
“The problem we're facing is this is the wettest year in the last hundred and 24 years according to NASA,” Clark said.
Still, 1977 is one of the years they are referencing as they seek to forecast long-range weather patterns for the remainder of the growing season.
“We try to base our data set off of similar occurrences but it's hard to do that when it's number one,” he said. “Our top years heading into August for example, is 1977. Additionally, 1991, 1993 and 2004 are some other loose fits.”
When the BAMWX team looks at an analog year, they’re looking for atmospheric similarities.
“What that means is the atmosphere behaved in a similar fashion during that time frame, so it gives us an idea of, based on our forecast methods and the some of the historical analogs, that we're not crazy when we say ‘hey, this should happen,’” Clark explained. “When I say ’93, I'm not saying that, we're going to mirror 1993. It's a lot of similarities and how the pattern was controlled by the atmosphere are still present now as they were in 93. It's not a one to one correlation.”
Early Frost On Tap?
“It's no surprise that we have a growing season that started significantly later than when it normally does,” Clark said. “So a normal frost date in this kind of scenario may be considered like an early frost or freeze.”
Still, according to him, sometimes when you're having a deeply lower, solar state it can just make it colder earlier.
“Some of the data sets, we were looking at show maybe late September and October that there is full potential earlier than normal there already and some of our analog years [point to that],” he said. “We need this growing season to last longer and there are things like lower solar, if this El Nino continue things like that, that would make that cold come earlier.”
Heinz agreed, pointing to the Southern Oscillation index or the pressure changes between Tahiti and Darwin as an indicator.
“Those can, those can magnify the strength of our cold fronts and here in the last two to three weeks, we've had 30 and 40 points swings, which is very significant,” he said. “So that can also that can even be a sign of some pretty strong cold fronts late August early September even so certainly in the in the cards at least.”
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‘Climate Grief’: Fears About The Planet’s Future Weigh On Americans’ Mental Health
Therapist Andrew Bryant says the landmark United Nations climate report last October brought a new mental health concern to his patients
JULY 18, 2019
Therapist Andrew Bryant says the landmark United Nations climate report last October brought a new mental health concern to his patients.
“I remember being in sessions with folks the next day. They had never mentioned climate change before, and they were like, ‘I keep hearing about this report,’” Bryant said. “Some of them expressed anxious feelings, and we kept talking about it over our next sessions.”
The study, conducted by the world’s leading climate scientists, said that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current rate, by 2040 the Earth will warm by 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius). Predictions say that increase in temperature will cause extreme weather events, rising sea levels, species extinction and reduced capacity to produce food.
Bryant works at North Seattle Therapy & Counseling in Washington state. Recently, he said, he has been seeing patients with anxiety or depression related to climate change and the Earth’s future.
Often these patients want to do something to reduce global warming but are overwhelmed and depressed by the scope of the problem and difficulty in finding solutions. And they’re anxious about how the Earth will change over the rest of their or their children’s lifetimes.
Although it is not an official clinical diagnosis, the psychiatric and psychological communities have names for the phenomenon: “climate distress,” “climate grief,” “climate anxiety” or “eco-anxiety.”
The concept also is gradually making its way into the public consciousness.
In a June 23 episode of the HBO series “Big Little Lies,” one of the main character’s young daughters has a panic attack after hearing about climate change in school.
Other recently released TV shows and movies have addressed the idea.
An April survey by Yale and George Mason universities found that 62% of Americans were at least “somewhat worried” about climate change. Of those, 23% were “very worried.”
Both younger and older generations express worry, although younger Americans generally seem more concerned: A 2019 Gallup poll reported that 54% of those ages 18 to 34, 38% of those 35 to 54 and 44% of those 55 or older worry a “great deal” about global warming.
There is no epidemiological data yet to show how common distress or anxiety related to climate change is. But, people say these feelings are real and affect their life decisions.
Los Angeles residents Mary Dacuma, 33, and her husband decided not to have children because they worry about how difficult the world might be for the next generation.
“The general anxiety about climate change made that decision for us, and now we can plan for that,” said Dacuma, who works in public relations. “Having it already decided has helped to ease my state of mind.”
Alyson Laura started seeing a counselor for anxiety and depression in college. Eventually, she began working in building sustainability, where she helped businesses reduce their energy and water consumption.
But, a few years ago, she began talking to her therapist about the contradictions in her life.
“I saw corporations destroying the environment, but I was working for them, and I knew what they were doing was wrong,” said Laura, 36, who lives in Atlanta. “It was causing me mental anguish. My therapist advised me to take action on what I could control and try to find another area of work. I just couldn’t work in an industry that was harming the Earth.”
So how do people alleviate feelings of stress, anxiety or depression surrounding the planet’s fate?
Bryant, the Seattle therapist, said the No. 1 action he recommends is sharing these concerns with others, whether a counselor, psychiatrist, family, friends or an activist group.
“There is a lot of underlying worry, but not a lot of dialogue or discussion, and so people feel isolated,” Bryant said. “Talking about it makes you feel less isolated, and it’s also a way to relieve the tension, find a pathway forward and find a purpose.”
In that vein, Dr. Janet Lewis, a clinical assistant professor of psychiatry at the University of Rochester in New York, recommends building relationships within a like-minded group. That could involve group therapy, environmental activist groups or online communities.
For Laura, becoming involved with the international activist group Extinction Rebellion has helped her build a network of people who share her values and made her feel as if she’s making a positive contribution to society. With the group, she has participated in nonviolent protests and is organizing the Atlanta chapter’s first grief circle, where people can share their anxiety and grief about the destruction of the Earth.
“Activism is also therapy for me,” said Laura.
Personal action is a way to take control of a situation in which you feel powerless, said Dr. Elizabeth Haase, a psychiatrist at Carson Tahoe Health in Carson City, Nev.
“Small gestures, such as taking fewer airplane rides or buying local produce, can actually make a difference,” Haase said.
Susan Clayton, a psychology professor at the College of Wooster in Ohio, said one way to tackle the uncertainty of environmental change is learning how it might specifically affect your community by viewing climate model predictions.
“If you know what you’re going to face, it’s not quite as scary,” said Clayton, who also co-authored the American Psychological Association’s 2017 report on how climate change can affect mental health.
Lewis said it’s also crucial for people to remember that their mental response to climate change is often valid.
“Most of the kinds of pathologies that we’re accustomed to treating in psychiatry, they tend to be out of proportion to whatever is going on. But with climate change, this is not inappropriate,” she explained.
“The goal is not to get rid of the anxiety. The goal is to transform it into what is bearable and useful and motivating.”
(Ikon Images/Getty Images)
Victoria Knight: vknight@kff.org, @victoriaregisk
RELATED TOPICS MENTAL HEALTH PUBLIC HEALTH ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH
This story also ran on People.com.This story can be republished for free (details).
Climate Change Made Europe's Heatwave At Least Five Times More Likely
The team of European researchers who conducted the work also found humanity’s warming of the planet made the heatwave about 4°C hotter than it would otherwise have been. The findings came as new data showed that the average European temperature last month was the hottest ever for June
2 July 2019
By Adam Vaughan
Climate change made last week’s deadly heatwave in Europe at least five times more likely, according to a rapid analysis.
The team of European researchers who conducted the work also found humanity’s warming of the planet made the heatwave about 4°C hotter than it would otherwise have been. The findings came as new data showed that the average European temperature last month was the hottest ever for June.
The intense heatwave affected large areas of Europe, setting temperature records in Germany, Austria, Spain, the Czech Republic, Switzerland and the Netherlands. France saw the hottest temperatures, including an all-time high of 45.9°C near the city of Nîmes, a level more typical of Death Valley, California. Manure self-ignited in Spain, causing a wildfire.
Hoping to avoid a repeat of the 2003 heatwave which killed more than 70,000, authorities in France postponed exams and set up ‘cool rooms’ for people, while Germany imposed motorway speed restrictions over fears of roads cracking. At least seven deaths have been linked to the heatwave; the true toll will not become clear until much later.
Read more: Weather forecasts could soon pin extreme events on climate change
But we now know the exceptional heatwave was made much more likely by global warming, due to an assessment published on Tuesday by the World Weather Attribution group.
They used computer models to calculate the temperatures we would expect to see in France with the 1°C of warming – our current level above pre-industrial temperatures – and also without it.
They then looked at the average temperature in three days in June across France and in the French city of Toulouse and compare the observations with the models.
The results for France as a whole showed that climate change increased the probability of the heatwave by at least a factor five. The results were similar for Toulouse.
While the researchers were very confident in the heatwave being made at least five times more likely, they said the real world temperature data shows the probability could have been increased by as much as 100 times.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute says although five times is the minimum, the true figure “could be much higher.” Up to 100 times is a possibility but should not be taken too seriously, the team says, because of the difficult of modelling clouds, the interaction between atmosphere and soil, and reproducing such extreme, record-breaking temperatures in models.
Compared to a heatwave in June in 1901, last week’s one was about 4°C hotter. “This is a strong reminder again, that climate change is happening here and now,” said Friederike Otto of the University of Oxford.
More on these topics: climate change
Parts of India: Heat Wave Causes Vegetable Prices To Rise 40% in one week
The heatwave sweeping through large parts of India has made vegetable prices skyrocket with some areas seeing a 25-40% rise in bills in the past 10 days
June 17, 2017
Source: economictimes.indiatimes.com
The heatwave sweeping through large parts of India has made vegetable prices skyrocket with some areas seeing a 25-40% rise in bills in the past 10 days. Traders said prices are likely to remain volatile until monsoon rain covers the main growing areas in the country. In April, wholesale prices of food rose 3.4%, but fruits and vegetable prices were up 14%.
Kailash Tajne, president of the Vashi Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC), said that vegetables were selling for 30-40% more than usual price since the past 10 days. “The heat is immense, and planting has been less due to water shortage in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, leading to a shortage of vegetables,” he said.
He said other vegetables such as bottle gourd, bitter gourd and cabbage have also seen a similar increase. “Vegetables are coming from Gujarat and Delhi, making them costlier,” he said.
In the Delhi’s Azadpur mandi, traders said prices of coriander, lemon, tomato, onions and green vegetables have risen gradually. They said expected arrivals from Himachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh should bring some respite in two weeks.
“Farmers will now plant tomato and onion in July. This has led to an increase in prices by Rs 2-3 a kg in wholesale to Rs 14-15 a kg for onion and Rs 20-25 a kg for tomato since the past 7-10 days,” he said.
Gadhave said prices will continue to rise over the next few days, even after the progress of monsoon towards south and western India. “It will take at least two months for the new crop to be harvested.”
Call For Videos: 2019 Greenroofs & Walls of The World Virtual Summit
Linda Velazquez on April 19, 2019
Greenroofs & Walls of the World™ Virtual Summit 2019
The 2019 Greenroofs & Walls of the World™ Virtual Summit – Greenroofs.com’s 5th completely online conference – will be held Live in September.
Held biennially since 2011, the Mission of the Greenroofs & Walls of the World™ Virtual Summits is to inform, share, and create a global social media experience online for learning and networking via the power of the Internet.
The theme of the 2019 Virtual Summit:
“Cooling a Warming Planet with Living Architecture”
The climate crisis is now and we need to embrace bold solutions and address it in many ways, especially with nature-based design and projects that promote green infrastructure as well as those with social and socially equitable benefits.
Encompassing a broad range of design solutions and a diverse community of multi-disciplinary professionals are crucial in our effort to mitigate and reverse the cataclysmic effects of human induced global warming.
Unique in our industry, the Greenroofs.com Virtual Summits are community destinations that allow you to connect with everyone and experience greenroofs, greenwalls, and green living infrastructure online. Participants have an incredible opportunity to learn about innovative site-specific, cultural, and climatic approaches in living architecture and – this time around – some transformative climate policy.
And with our social media and live events, you can connect and meet awesome experts and practitioners – all with with no carbon footprint!
#VirtualSummit2019
Earth. Image: NASA
Call for Videos
New this year and for the first time, we are issuing an Open Call for Videos! Do you have something unique and interesting to share with the world regarding “Cooling a Warming Planet with Living Architecture?” We’d love to hear from you!
What
Think of your video as an interactive live presentation that is prerecorded by you. We are looking for creative videos about 10 – 30 minutes in length of ideas, people & projects talking about how design can and does address climate change. We are open to videos from both individuals and multi-speakers either in a panel-type or multiple interview format.
Watch previous speaker videos on our Albums / GreenroofsTV channels: 2017, 2015, 2013 and 2011.
Send us an Abstract of your proposed video, either in writing or short under 1-minute video format (much more fun!). But it’s up to you.
Please include: Video Title; Primary Presenter(s); Contact Info; Type(s) of vegetated LID (Low Impact Development) Living Architecture (for example greenroof, greenwall, green street, bioswale, bioretention pond, storm barrier, etc.); Abstract (300 word maximum); and Biography: (100 word maximum).
We need engaged speakers: you MUST be available to participate in social media and make time for a Live Q & A!
By submitting your video, you grant Greenroofs.com permission to share your work with our readership via website, email, and on social media channels.
What Not
We are not looking for:
General information on green roofs and/or green walls/living architecture/green infrastructure – we have a pretty sophisticated audience!
Simply narrated PowerPoint presentations – sure you can show a few narrated slides, but overall it has to be lively and dynamic. Go outside and film your subject or film inside with people discussing and actively engaging with each other.
Your entire video – please only send us What is listed above for now!
Just Another Day on Aerosol Earth. Image: NASA/Joshua Stevens/Adam Voiland
How
Send Abstract and/or Video Abstract to: virtual@greenroofs.com
Our distinguished 2019 Advisory Board and I will review all Video Abstracts to determine a diverse group of sustainability and living architecture professionals.
Key Dates
Upon acceptance of your video, specifics will follow but these are the Key Dates to keep in mind:
Call for Videos: April 19, 2019
Call for Video Abstracts Due: May 31
Notification of Accepted Videos: June 7
Completed Videos Due: July 26
The 2019 Virtual Summit is Open with Scheduled Live Happenings & Social Media Events: September 1-30
Earth. Image: NASA Earth Observatory by Robert Simmon, using Suomi NPP VIIRS data from Chris Elvidge (NOAA National Geophysical Data Center)
#VirtualSummit2019
Join Us and the World in September
The 2019 Greenroofs & Walls of the World™ Virtual Summit will be a fun and interactive experience for all.
We hope you join us online in September to learn and share your vision for a healthier planet enveloping living architecture with the world!
For additional info, contact me at:
Linda S. Velazquez, ASLA, LEED AP, GRP
Greenroofs.com Publisher & Greenroofs & Walls of the World™ Virtual Summits
Host
linda@greenroofs.com
o: (770) 772-7334 | t: (888) 477-1326
ARCHITECTURE, CLIMATE CHANGE, GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE, GREEN ROOFS, GREEN WALLS
New York Passes Mandatory Green Roof Legislation
Linda Velazquez on April 18, 2019
Javits Convention Center. Image: Aramis Velazquez
Green Roofs for Healthy Cities Celebrates Historic Passing of The Climate Mobilization Act in New York City – Green Roofs Required on New Buildings
Green Roofs for Healthy Cities shares the historic win for all New Yorkers as well as the larger green infrastructure community: Today, April 18, 2019 at 1:30 pm EST time the New York City Council passed The Climate Mobilization Act, a suite of measures to reduce greenhouse gases released from buildings in New York City, including a requirement for green roofs and/or solar panels on newly constructed buildings.
Brooklyn Grange. Image: Linda Velazquez
The package of bills includes three pieces of legislation from New York City Council members Rafael Espinal, Donovan Richards and Stephen Levin.
“For the past two years Green Roofs for Healthy Cities has been advocating for new measures to grow the green roof market in New York City, and we are very pleased with the passage of this new legislation”, said Steven W. Peck, GRP, Honorary ASLA, Founder and President, Green Roofs for Healthy Cities. “New York now joins cities like Denver, San Francisco, Toronto and Portland, Oregon in making green roofs a requirement.” he added. “Through direct lobbying efforts from Green Roofs for Healthy Cities members and other partners, New York City will quickly become a leader in reducing the effects of climate change from its buildings. Thanks to all of the individuals involved!” he added.
Rafael Espinal, NYC Council Member, 37th District, who has been at the forefront of this push for a greener New York City said,
“Today, we are passing a bill that won’t just make our skyline prettier – it will also improve the quality of life for New Yorkers for generations to come. My legislation will require green roofs to be installed on new residential and commercial buildings, making New York the largest city in the nation to pass such a law. We’ve already seen the revolutionary benefits of green roofs in action thanks to places around the city like Brooklyn Steel, the Barclays Center, the Javits Center, the USPS Morgan Processing and Distribution Center, and many others. They cool down cities by mitigating Urban Heat Island Effect, cut energy costs, absorb air pollution, reduce storm-water runoff, promote biodiversity, provide sound-proofing, and make our cities more livable for all.”
“I want to thank the advocates who were instrumental in pushing this forward, Council Members Donovan Richards and Stephen Levin for partnering with me on this effort, and Speaker Johnson for his leadership. These bills show that New York will not be idle in the face of an existential threat like climate change. At a time when the federal government is taking us backward, it is up to cities to lead us into a sustainable future. The time to act is now.”
Kingsland Wildflower Rooftop. Image: Kingsland Wildflowers Green Roof & Community Space
The Climate Mobilization Act covers eight initiatives and two resolutions, among which includes:
• Int. 1031 – Green Roof Information
• Int. 1032 – Green Roofs for New Construction
• Res. 66 – Green Roof Tax Abatement increase
The Climate Mobilization Act is the largest single act to cut climate pollution of any city. In a densely packed metropolitan of over seven million residents, commercial and residential buildings are the largest source of emissions and sit at the center of the policy change. The Act will set emission caps with the goal of reducing emissions by 2030. Depending on the size and property assessments of the buildings, owners will be able to meet targets, ranging from a cut of emissions by 40% by 2030 and 80% by 2050 for larger buildings. Smaller buildings will reduce emissions in more modest measures.
Also see today’s article from Brooklyn Eagle.
Congratulations to New York City and to all whose hard and persistent work made this important Climate Mobilization Act happen!
Climate Labels On Food To Become A Reality In Denmark
Research from the University of Technology Sydney and Duke University suggests that using labels that are easy to understand may create demand for responsibly produced food. Lead author of the research
The Danish Government has announced that a climate labeling system on food products will accompany its plan to become carbon neutral by 2050. Officials from the Danish Ministry of Energy, Utilities, and Climate stated that the Government is proposing to work with supermarkets to place stickers on all food products that clearly indicate their carbon footprint. The proposal would help consumers make informed choices, with Denmark’s Minister for the Environment, Lars Christian Lilleholt, explaining, “We want to give consumers the means to assess in supermarkets the environmental impact of products.”
Research from the University of Technology Sydney and Duke University suggests that using labels that are easy to understand may create demand for responsibly produced food. Lead author of the research, Dr. Adrian Camilleri, describes the current lack of transparency, “With an appliance such as a heater you can feel the energy used and see an electricity bill at the end of the month, so the impact is quite salient, whereas the impact of food production is largely invisible.”
Minister Lilleholt says that giving consumers easy access to information is important, but accurate labeling comes with a long list of challenges. The labels may have to consider water and land usage, life-cycle analysis, greenhouse gas emissions, and carbon footprint from transport. Director of the Danish Agriculture & Food Council, Morten Høyer, approves of the proposal, but notes a challenging component: nutritional value. “It might be necessary to weigh up the environmental impact against the nutritional value of the product. A bottle of soda may have a low environmental impact, but it is not a product you can live on,” says Høyer.
Developing a comprehensive labeling system that spans all food products in Denmark’s supermarkets may take time, and a formal launch date has not yet been set. If successful, climate labeling could shed light on which practices produce healthy food more sustainably and may even inspire competitive innovation from producers. “My impression is that there is a demand for knowledge about how individual consumers can contribute to improving world climate,” Lilleholt says.
Denmark, which ranked 17th in the world in the Climate Change Performance Index, announced the proposal last year in the wake of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report highlighting the consequences of global warming
Hershey GC Sees Climate Change As Compliance Challenge
By Alison Noon
Law360 (March 14, 2019, 7:21 PM EDT) -- The Hershey Co. is exploring the possibility of moving its cocoa production indoors to save chocolate production from the effects of climate change, the company's general counsel said Thursday, delving into his expectation that global warming will jump from corporate research and risk management to the compliance desk.
The Hershey Co. is exploring indoor farming in light of climate change and the company's top lawyer thinks compliance officers should take note. (Credit: AeroFarms)
Speaking at a corporate ethics conference, Damien Atkins said one of the world's leading chocolate manufacturers is exploring not only the science of indoor cocoa, but whether it could insulate Hershey's supply chain and ease the stress over global warming that will come down the line for his coworkers in compliance.
"I think the geopolitical risk is something you have to manage," Atkins told a ballroom of compliance officers in Manhattan. "With respect to climate change, you see it now in terms of the quality and nature and types of trees and the way that you manage trees, and we're looking at things like indoor farming."
He indicated it's not a far-fetched idea, mentioning that one of the world's largest indoor agriculture facilities was located in nearby New Jersey, where AeroFarms LLC grows vegetables in trays stacked high in climate-controlled warehouses.
"You have to think of ways of how you actually get that product when your core supply can disappear," said Atkins, who worked at Oath Inc. predecessor AOL and Panasonic before Hershey.
But throwing supply chains into disorder will only be the beginning of the disruptive effects of climate change on business, Atkins said. Global warming could sneak up on compliance departments years from now if they let it, which they may — compliance officers interviewed by Law360 at the conference said they did not foresee global warming earning a place in their work. Atkins indicated they have another thing coming.
"Climate change is one of those things that has a slow velocity but high impact, and those are the worst things to plan against, right, because there's no immediate pressure but you know that it's coming," he said on stage at the Ethisphere conference.
He further explained to Law360 after the panel that raising the stakes will increase pressure on employees. As compliance officers know, high pressure invites white collar misconduct.
"As that comes under stress, the dollars to process the systems, the procedures, all kinds of bad things happen," he said.
The prospect of growing cocoa indoors is in research and development, Atkins said. The company currently sources cocoa from family-run farms in Africa and South America that employ 2 million people, according to the company's website. Atkins said the company is wholeheartedly committed to them, recently pledging to invest $500 million over the next decade in West African cocoa communities.
The flip side, Atkins told the conference, is the occasional report that Hershey's family-run farms are employing children. Nothing is without risk, especially in the age of social media.
"You just have to, as my former CEO [at Panasonic] would say, stay on strategy," Atkins said on stage. "You have to keep doing it."
Hershey and other major chocolate manufacturers recently beat several lawsuits that sought to put a disclaimer on chocolate products saying it may have been made using child or slave labor. A Massachusetts federal judge and the Ninth Circuit dismissed those claims.
Increasingly, Atkins said, Hershey's supply chain is thrown off course due to political unrest.
"We have areas in Mexico now where we ship trucks of chocolate and raw material and maybe once or twice a month these trucks get hijacked," Atkins said. "I mean, it's a common occurrence. And how do you plan around areas where you can't go to the police because the police were probably into it?"
He said the hijacking has become "more pervasive" absent government intervention.
"That happens to us a lot."
--Editing by Michael Watanabe.
Dramatic Rainfall Changes For Key Crops Expected Even With Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions
by CIAT Comunicaciones | Mar 11, 2019
By 2040, rainfall on wheat, soybean, rice and maize will have changed, even if Paris Agreement emissions targets are met. Projections show parts of Europe, Africa, the Americas and Australia will be drier, while the tropics and north will be wetter.
Even if humans radically reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the short term, important crop-growing regions of the world can expect changes to rainfall patterns by 2040. In fact, some regions are already experiencing new climatic regimes compared with just a generation ago. The study, published March 11 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, warns that up to 14 percent of land dedicated to wheat, maize, rice and soybean will be drier, while up to 31 percent will be wetter.
The study uses four emissions scenarios from low to high to predict time of emergence (TOE) of permanent precipitation changes, meaning the year by which precipitation changes remain permanently outside their historical variation in a specific location. The research shows that quick action on emissions – in line with 2015’s Paris Agreement – would push TOE projections deeper into the future or reduce the size of affected areas.
Drier regions include Southwestern Australia, Southern Africa, southwestern South America, and the Mediterranean, according to the study. Wheat cropland in Central Mexico is also headed for a drier future. Wetter areas include Canada, Russia, India and the Eastern United States.
The four crops in the study represent about 40 percent of global caloric intake and the authors say that, regardless of how much mitigation is achieved, all regions – both wetter and drier – need to invest in adaptation, and do so urgently in areas expected to see major changes in the next couple of decades. However, in the scenarios with low greenhouse gas emissions, most regions have two-three decades more to adapt than under high-emission scenarios.
Low-emission scenarios, the authors stressed, likely imply less need for potentially costly adaptation to new rainfall regimes.
Wheat under heat
Drier conditions are expected for many major wheat producers. In Australia, about 27 percent of wheat-growing land will see less precipitation, under a mid-emissions scenario. Algeria (100 percent), Morocco (91 percent), South Africa (79 percent), Mexico (74 percent), Spain (55 percent), Chile (40 percent), Turkey (28 percent), Italy (20 percent) and Egypt (15 percent) are other major producers that will be affected. Higher emissions mean a larger amount of land will become dry sooner, the study found.
“These are definitely countries that will need to think rather quickly what they’d like to do with their wheat production,” said Maisa Rojas, the study’s lead author and climatologist at Universidad de Chile. Colleagues at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture, the University of Leeds, Chile’s Center for Climate and Resilience Research, and Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile (UC) co-authored the study.
“What we’re predicting are probably conservative years for time of emergence,” said Rojas. “Detectable precipitation changes are of course not only important for agriculture, but for water resource management more in general, so our results are relevant for other sectors as well.”
Speed of change
One stunning aspect of the study is how quickly global precipitation is changing. The baseline for comparison is 20 years spanning 1986-2005. A handful of regions already have crossed that “historical” average into an entirely new rainfall regime, including Russia, Norway, Canada and the parts of the East Coast of the United States. The study projects that up to 36 percent of all land area will be wetter or drier under a high-emission scenario.
“Farmers growing crops in those areas are going to experience significantly different conditions than what they are used to,” said Julian Ramirez-Villegas, a scientist with the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). “They’re going to be completely outside their normal historical environments and many farmers are already struggling with historic variability.”
Areas not reflected in the study are likely to have precipitation changes as well, said Rojas. But because natural variation in those areas is high, extreme change is needed before researchers can detect their times of emergence.
“Other studies have examined time of emergence in global temperature and precipitation,” said Fabrice Lambert, a UC professor and co-author. “The interesting thing about this study is that we overlay the climatic results with spatial cropland distribution and growing seasons to show which agricultural production regions will be impacted by precipitation changes, and how much time they have to prepare.”
The world’s most populous countries – China and India – are among those that will have much wetter fields for the four crops included in the study, under any emission scenario. Percentage of cropland that will extend into high double-digits. Asia’s other big rice producers, including Japan, Korea and the Philippines will have TOEs for increased rainfall.
Wheat fields northern Europe, the United States, Canada and Russia will have higher precipitation.
More precipitation may mean higher production, but when coupled with rising sea levels, higher temperatures and increased potential for flooding, higher production is not assured, said the authors.
“The precise nature of the changes is impossible to predict,” said Andy Challinor, a co-author and Professor at the Priestley International Centre for Climate at the University of Leeds. “What this study tells us is that adaptation needs to be agile. For the first time, we can tell what changes to be ready for – and when they are expected – in our major crop-growing regions. Prior to this study, the rainfall changes experienced by crops were thought to be so unpredictable that no real advice could be given.”
Major crops facing drier conditions without reductions in greenhouse gas emissions
Major crops facing wetter conditions without reductions in greenhouse gas emissions
This infographic shows a selection of areas and crops that will be affected by reduced rainfall in coming decades due to climate change, according to a 2019 study in PNAS. Percentages refer to the area of land currently dedicated to cultivation of the specified crops.
CREDIT: Lucelly Anaconas / International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT).
Funding and partners
The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) contributed funding to this project, which is carried out with support from CGIAR Fund Donors and through bilateral funding agreements. For details, please visit https://ccafs.cgiar.org/donors.
The International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) is a CGIAR research center. CIAT develops technologies, innovative methods and knowledge that enable farmers, especially smallholders, to make agriculture more competitive, profitable, sustainable and resilient. Headquartered in Cali, Colombia, CIAT conducts research for development in tropical regions of Latin America, Africa, and Asia. https://ciat.cgiar.org
CGIAR is a global research partnership for a food-secure future. Its science is carried out by 15 research centers in collaboration with hundreds of partners across the globe. https://www.cgiar.org
Funding was also provided by the Center for Climate and Resilience Research, (CR2), a center of excellence of the National Commission for Scientific and Technological Research (CONICYT) of Chile. Its objective is to deepen the understanding of the processes and impacts of the climate system in Chile and globally from an interdisciplinary perspective. It also aims at contributing to the definition of adaptation and mitigation measures for climate change that contribute to social resilience. www.cr2.cl
The University of Leeds is one of the largest higher education institutions in the UK, with more than 38,000 students from more than 150 different countries, and a member of the Russell Group of research-intensive universities. The University plays a significant role in the Turing, Rosalind Franklin and Royce Institutes. www.leeds.ac.uk
California Rains Continue To Play Havoc On Markets
BY DAVID ROBIDOUX | FEBRUARY 12, 2019
As the rain continues in California the markets also continue their march higher. All commodities currently coming from the coastal regions of California have seen excessive rain over the past month leading to decreased supplies and major issues with quality. Strawberries, broccoli, cauliflower, radishes and celery have all seen prices rise again this past week due to the heavy storms over the weekend — and there is more rain to come this week.
“The biggest impacts from these rains is damage to ripe strawberries, which turn to mush when they get that wet and can’t be sold for fresh fruit," according to John Krist, chief executive officer of the California Farm Bureau. "That damaged fruit ends up getting stripped and sold for juice or jam, which is a money-losing proposition at this time of year, but one that can’t be avoided — if left in the fields that damaged fruit will spread fungus.
“We also had harvest delays in just about everything, including citrus, which can’t be picked when wet. And there’s a heightened risk of fungal disease in vegetables, too, particularly celery," said Krist.
“It’s worth remembering, however, that this is what a normal year used to look like," said Krist. "Our frame of reference has been skewed by nearly seven years of drought or below-average rainfall. Dealing with these issues is par for the course."
This year is more in line with historical norms. The historical average combined rainfall for January and February in Oxnard, CA, is approximate seven inches. Over the last seven years, when California has been in a drought cycle, the average combined rainfall for these two months is less than four inches. This year nine inches of rain have already fallen in Oxnard and we have two more weeks to go in February.
This next shot coming on Wednesday and Thursday will drop another 1.5 inches of rain and bring the total close to 11 inches. It’s no wonder harvests are being delayed.
Santa Maria and Salinas will also see another inch-plus of rain this week.
The National Weather Service issued freeze warnings for yesterday morning and this morning in the San Joaquin Valley as temps dropped below freezing for up to six hours the last two nights. Some locations, such as Visalia, saw temps drop down to 28 Monday morning and 29 this morning.
Rain is coming to all current growing regions in Florida today. From Plant City all the way south to Homestead, all growing locations can expect approximately 0.25 inches of rain today. Behind this storm expect one day of cooler temps on Wednesday. Temperatures will drop by about 10 to 15 degrees across the board tomorrow. On Thursday temperatures will be back to normal in the low 80s during the day and the low 60s at night. There is another opportunity for light rain on Friday and Saturday.
Starting Sunday Florida will be feeling the effects of a heat wave. Up and down the state expect maximum temps close to 90 and minimum temps in the mid- to upper 60s. These temps will last at least through Wednesday of next week. Expect production to heavier as we head into next week.
Tomato supplies out of Mexico have tightened a bit and prices have moved off the minimum where they had been for the past several weeks, which could be a result of bloom drop caused by the cold temps back in the late December.
Temperatures in Culiacan will get progressively hotter throughout the week, peaking this Friday with a max temp of 94 and a minimum temp of 61. On Saturday Culiacan will begin a cooling trend, and by Wednesday, Feb. 20 they will see a minimum temp of 50. This should slow down production somewhat by the end of next week.
The Weathermelon app offers consolidated lists of global growing regions for each commodity; a 10-day detail forecast for each region; current radar maps (U.S. only); estimated harvest start/end dates for each commodity; monthly average high/low temps for each region; and custom daily alerts for temperature, precipitation and severe weather based on 10-day forecasts.
(David Robidoux is a co-founder Weathermelon)
Deep-Sea Drilling To Shed New Light on The Stability of The Antarctic Ice Sheet
AWI geoscientists lead international IODP expeditions to the Antarctic Ocean
Over the next few months, geophysicists and geologists from the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research will gain unprecedented insights into the climatic history of the Antarctic Ice Sheet as part of the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP). The experts will take part in three Antarctic expeditions on board the IODP drilling ship “JOIDES Resolution”, and will lead two of the three legs. By collecting the drilled cores, the researchers hope to find evidence of how the ice masses of the Antarctic have reacted to sudden temperature climbs in past interglacial periods – information that is urgently needed in order to more accurately predict future sea-level rise. In terms of modelling, the behaviour of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is still considered one of the greatest question marks.
How will Antarctic ice masses respond to climate change, and to what extent will they contribute to sea-level rise? Climate researchers still don’t have a satisfactory answer to that question, partly because they lack information on how ice sheets have behaved in previous interglacial periods. Geophysicists and geologists from the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) in Bremerhaven have now made it their goal to remedy the situation. Over the next seven months, they will join three international expeditions to the Antarctic Ocean on board the US-based drilling ship “JOIDES Resolution”, and will serve as the scientific directors for two of the three expedition legs. These journeys will be undertaken as part of the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP), which is dedicated to investigating the history of our planet and its climate on the basis of deep-sea cores.
The first expedition (IODP 379) started in Punta Arenas (Chile) on 23 January 2019, and takes the 29-member team of international researchers, accompanied by technicians, drilling experts and ship’s crew (altogether 125 people) to the Amundsen Sea – and with it, to the region broadly considered to be the Achilles heel of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. “Large sections of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet lie on land that is below sea level, which means these ice masses can easily be reached by warm ocean currents, and are therefore especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change,” explains Dr Karsten Gohl, an AWI geophysicist and one of the expedition’s two chief scientists.
Seeking signs of an eroding West Antarctic Ice Sheet
At the moment, those glaciers that empty into the Amundsen Sea are losing ice faster than all other ice streams in the Antarctic or in Greenland. Moreover, ice sheet simulations and sediment samples from the Ross Sea indicate that the ice masses of the West Antarctic retreated extensively during past interglacial periods – e.g., 3 million years ago in the Middle Pliocene, when the average global temperature was roughly 3 degrees higher than today. In other words, it was essentially the same temperature as that predicted for the year 2100 if greenhouse-gas emissions remain constant.
Back then, the researchers believe, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet suffered a near-total collapse. However, there’s still no evidence to back their hypothesis. The planned deep-sea drilling missions in the Amundsen Sea are intended to change all that. “By drilling down as far as 100 metres below the seafloor, we hope to find sediment deposits from the Pliocene and other warm epochs, where we should be able to see the remains of algae, foraminifera and other typical pelagic organisms. And these remains will prove that, in these warmer periods, there was little to no ice in West Antarctica,” says AWI geologist and expedition member Dr Johann Klages.
Finding these microfossils would also allow the researchers to reconstruct the past water temperatures, and to investigate which climate changes led to the retreat or decline of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. For example, insights into how warm the deep-sea currents were back then are desperately needed. The researchers plan to subsequently compare these historical values with current observations of deep-sea currents in the Amundsen Sea, in order to determine whether or not they could be considered the harbingers of a potential future collapse.
In addition, the experts hope to find evidence of increased iceberg occurrence. “As they drift, icebergs lose sand, gravel and pebbles that were trapped in their ice,” explains Johann Klages. “If we encounter coarse sand and gravel deposits when we drill, it will tell us that large quantities of ice broke off from the ice sheet in past interglacial periods and drifted through the Antarctic Ocean.” Further, these stony deposits’ geochemical fingerprint would allow the researchers to identify the ice masses’ region of origin, and to reconstruct which glaciers lost the most ice in each respective interglacial period.
Drilling on a main route for icebergs
The participants in the second expedition (IODP 382), which will take them to the Scotia Sea from 20 March to 20 May, will rely on the same research principle. The waters between the Antarctic Peninsula and the Falkland Islands are considered both the main route for large icebergs and their graveyard. If the Antarctic did indeed lose substantial ice during the interglacial periods of the Pliocene and Pleistocene, there should be corresponding deposits in these waters – from West Antarctica and East Antarctica alike. But if they are there, they’re quite far down; as AWI geologist and expedition member Dr Thomas Ronge explains: “At the planned drilling sites, the water is roughly 4,000 metres deep. We’ll have to drill for several days before we reach our target depth of 600 metres below the seafloor. Another important consideration: while we’re drilling, we have to hope that we don’t cross paths with any icebergs.”
For any other research ship, the moment an iceberg drew near, the drilling site would have to be abandoned – but not for the “JOIDES Resolution”: in the event the 143-metre-long drilling ship has to evade an iceberg, the borehole on the seafloor will be sealed with a specially designed, funnel-shaped borehole plug. The plug can be relocated later, so that, once the ship has successfully avoided the iceberg, the team can easily resume drilling, right where they left off.
In the world’s largest ocean current
The third leg of the expedition (IODP 383), which will be co-led by AWI geologist Dr Frank Lamy and the German climate researcher Gisela Winckler from Columbia University (USA), will take the ship to waters west of the Drake Passage, starting in late May. Once they’ve arrived there, in the southeast Pacific region of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the most powerful ocean current in the world, the researchers will have to drill 500 metres down into the seafloor in order to gather sediment samples from the Pliocene and Pleistocene. “For our work, above all we’ll be considering the question of how wind and ocean currents in the Southern Hemisphere reacted to global warming trends in the past, and what major interactions there were between the atmosphere, the ocean, and the ice masses of the Antarctic,” relates Frank Lamy.
Once analysed and combined, the outcomes of the three expeditions are expected to allow the researchers to precisely reconstruct the ice masses’ behaviour during past interglacial periods. If all goes as planned, they will not only arrive at a much better grasp of one of the most central, yet poorly understood processes in the Earth’s climate system, but will also be able to more accurately predict the future development of the West and East Antarctic Ice Sheets. Taken together, the two sheets contain enough freshwater to raise the global sea level by roughly 58 metres.
The IODP is an international research programme in which the USA, Japan, China, South Korea, India, Brazil, New Zealand, Australia and 15 European countries, including Germany, are participating. The US-based IODP ship “JOIDES Resolution” can accommodate up to 50 researchers and 65 crewmembers. Its operations are financed by the National Science Foundation (USA), and by support organisations in all other IODP member states.
Notes for Editors
For further information on the International Ocean Discovery Program and the individual expeditions, please visit: http://iodp.tamu.edu/scienceops/expeditions.html
Printable images and graphics can be downloaded using the following link:
https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/press-release/deep-sea-drilling-to-shed-new-light-on-the-stability-of-the-antarctic-ice-sheet.html
Your academic contact partners at the Alfred Wegener Institute are:
IODP Expedition 379 to the Amundsen Sea:
∞ Chief Scientist Dr Karsten Gohl (tel.: +49(471)4831-1361; e-mail: Karsten.Gohl@awi.de)
∞ Dr Johann Klages (tel.: +49(471)4831-1574; e-mail: Johann.Klages@awi.de)
The expedition’s second chief scientist is the American Prof. Julia Wellner from the University of Houston (tel. +1(713)743-2887; e-mail: jwellner@uh.edu).
IODP Expedition 382 to the Scotia Sea
∞ Dr Thomas Ronge (tel.: +49(471)4831-2087; e-mail: Thomas.Ronge@awi.de)
IODP Expedition 383 to the Southeast Pacific / Circumpolar Current
• Chief Scientist Dr Frank Lamy (tel.: +49(471)4831-2124; e-mail: Frank.Lamy@awi.de)
The expedition’s second chief scientist is Prof. Gisela Winckler (tel.: +1(845)365-8756; e-mail: winckler@ldeo.columbia.edu).
At the AWI’s Communications and Media Relations department, Folke Mehrtens (tel.: +49(471)4831-2007; e-mail: medien@awi.de) will be pleased to help you with any questions.
The Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) conducts research in the Arctic, Antarctic and oceans of the high and mid-latitudes. It coordinates polar research in Germany and provides major infrastructure to the international scientific community, such as the research icebreaker Polarstern and stations in the Arctic and Antarctica. The Alfred Wegener Institute is one of the 19 research centres of the Helmholtz Association, the largest scientific organisation in Germany.